Original title: Special Fund meeting: time is on Kim Jeong-eun side
Yang Zhi, author of literary observer network
German current political columnist
The "special gold club", which has attracted worldwide attention, was officially opened today.
The Korean Peninsula, from cruel war to today's equal negotiation, has been going on for 68 years. No matter what the specific outcome of the "special fund meeting" is, it is an epoch-making event that the leaders of the DPRK and the United States sit down face-to-face negotiations.
From this perspective, the world should praise Trump and Kim Jeong-eun.
Kim Jeong-eun turns gorgeous, Trump becomes Buddha?
The third generation descendants of the Kim family in Korea completed the magnificent turn to "peace envoys" in just six months. The power is really breathtaking.
Trump, President of the United States, has also moved away from the threat of "flame and anger" on North Korea, turning to Pyongyang 's "little owner", having snubbed his Western allies (G7), across the Pacific, to talk to Kim Jeong-eun in Singapore. What are the strategic motives behind this?
Objectively speaking, the two people of gold are not a model for their promise, so when the peace may come, it is necessary to look back on how the two people from each other go from each other to the "mutual courtesy" when the international political reputation is low.
In November 25, 2014, when Kim Jeong-eun visited the Korean War Museum of the North Korea, he said: "the massacre carried out by the American imperialist invaders in 1950 was the evidence of the killings of the cannibals and the murderers."
In September 16, 2015, Trump said in a debate with other Republican presidential candidates: "no one mentioned the XX and nuclear weapons in North Korea. Now it's better for people to think about North Korea and several other places. "
In February 10, 2016, Trump said in an interview with CBS, "I really want to urge China to let that guy go away quickly, no matter what way it is used."
In March 26, 2016, North Korea's voiceover in the promotional video: "the United States must make a choice. As a country, whether it wants to exist or disappear on this planet depends entirely on itself. "
In August 8, 2017, Trump told reporters in front of the international golf course at Bedminster, New Jersey, New Jersey, "North Korea is best not to threaten the United States again. We will deal with it with the flames and anger that the world has not seen so far."
In August 10, 2017, Kim Jeong-eun said on national television: "unable to have a solid dialogue with this irrational guy."
In September 15, 2017, the Korean official quoted Kim Jeong-eun as saying: "we have to let the great power chauvinist know that despite the endless sanctions and blockade, we can still achieve the goal of the formation of the nuclear army."
In September 19, 2017, Trump responded to North Korea's missile and nuclear threat: "if the United States is forced to defend itself or allies, it will completely destroy North Korea, and there is no choice... The XXX is on a path of self destruction... No country in the world is willing to see that the gang has missiles and nuclear weapons.
In September 20, 2017, South Korea radio cited Korean Foreign Minister Li Yonghao (Ri Yong Ho) at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, saying: "there is a proverb in the DPRK: even if the dog barks, it will continue to move in a big way. If he thinks dogs bark can frighten us, it's a dog's dream. "
In September 22, 2017, KCNA quoted Kim as saying, "I will fire down the old man with mental illness in America."
In September 22, 2017, Trump made a push: "Kim Jeong-eun was obviously a madman. He was indifferent to the death of his own people. He had to give him an unprecedented lesson."
In November 12, 2017, Trump pushed again: "if I don't call him 'XXXX', how can Kim Jeong-eun tell me how old I can be humiliated? Well, I'll try to be his friend. Maybe someday. "
In January 3, 2018, Trump responded to Kim Jeong-eun's New Year message: "North Korean leader Kim Jeong-eun previously said he had been putting the nuclear button on his desk. Please tell him that I have a bigger and stronger nuclear button, and my button can be used."
In January 11, 2018, Trump told Wall Street Journal, "I may have a good relationship with Kim Jeong-eun." in January 11, 2018,
In May 25, 2018, the first deputy foreign minister Jin Guiguan (Kim Kye Gwan) responded with a moderated tone after Trump announced the cancellation of the "special gold conference": "we have always hoped that the so-called 'Trump formula' can help to eliminate the concerns of both sides."
In June 7, 2018, Trump said, in response to Kim Jeong-eun's entrustment to the special envoy Jin Yingzhe (Kim Yong Chol), "this is really a very warm and beautiful letter."
Both Kim Jeong-eun and Trump have a record of "disrecognition of people". The world wishes the two people to succeed at the summit, and of course there are reasons to doubt the sustainability and stability of the peninsula. But at the same time, we should also know that any political action is driven by their respective strategic plots. The leaders of the DPRK and the US can come together today. It is not the goodwill of each other, but the call of the national interest.
A long way to peace, the parties seek the same way
The nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula is more than doubled. We might as well start from 1994 to the US Japan Geneva framework agreement.
In accordance with the agreement signed in October 21st 94, Pyongyang agreed to freeze the nuclear program and reaccept the entry inspection of the International Atomic Energy Organization (IAEA), and the US side promised to provide 500 thousand tons of heavy oil to the DPRK on this basis, while helping it to complete the construction of the light water reactor by 2010. Unfortunately, the easing came to an end in less than three months, as the United States discovered that North Korea was secretly implementing the uranium enrichment program. Washington immediately ceased its aid commitments in the agreement, and Pyongyang then dropped out of the nuclear non proliferation treaty.
In August 2003, the international community tried again to work together to solve the North Korean nuclear issue. The six party talks were held in Beijing from north and South Korea and China, Japan and the United States. The platform had six rounds of talks. In the fifth round of talks in 2007, the parties agreed on the following basic ideas: Pyongyang stopped nuclear programs in exchange for humanitarian assistance, fuel supply and North Korea and the normalization of Asahi relations. The deal, however, lasted only two years.
In February 2012, shortly after Kim Jeong-eun's arrival, he made similar swaps, but soon gave up. Until the consolidation of power in the country, the young statecraft only made efforts to achieve the goal of breaking away from the economic difficulties and ending international isolation through the nuclear program.
In the past half a year, Kim Jeong-eun has shown extraordinary international operation, but it is invariable. In April this year, when he met the first meeting of the president of South Korea, he said he could accept a military exercise in the United States and South Korea. It was not long before he looked at it as a provocation, and he cancelled a high-level meeting with South Korea to start a new attack on the US side. To suspend the summit of the DPRK and the United States.
Just now, the changeable Kim Jeong-eun encountered a more changeable Trump. In the face of the "threat" of Pyongyang, Trump, who was used to pushing the case, wrote an exception to Kim Jeong-eun, and first announced his decision to cancel the summit. Wen, who was sandwiched between the DPRK and the United States, had to bear the burden of humiliation and had to assume the role of a mediator.
Efforts will be made without loss of interest. After all efforts, Singapore's "special gold association" will finally "bring back to life".
In many international efforts, China's outstanding contributions should be emphasized.
When North Korea announced its withdrawal from the nuclear non proliferation treaty in 2003, the US military action against Iraq was about to begin. President George W. Bush sent Secretary of state Powell to lobbying China to avoid both sides getting into trouble. The Chinese side finally agreed to help mediate, resulting in the subsequent "six party talks".
In March 2017, in the face of the increasingly serious crisis situation, Beijing put forward a fair and fair "double suspension" proposal, that is, North Korea suspended nuclear activities, and the United States and South Korea suspended large-scale military exercises as a first step to get rid of the "security dilemma". Even today, this proposal is still of practical significance, and there is no harm in building mutual trust between the DPRK and the United States.
As the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said last April, "China has put forward a" double track and advance "idea, as long as it is a dialogue, formal or informal, one track or two track, bilateral or three party, four party, China will be willing to give support.
It is difficult to begin with all things. But as long as the dialogue is kept, there is hope for peace.
The interests of the parties on the Korean Peninsula
Any crisis is the fruit of the deterioration of the interests of all parties, and all peace is the fruit of mutual action.
It is normal for every country to have their own interests, but if we ignore others' interests and act arbitrarily, it is a taboo of international operation.
What is the expectation of the "special fund"?
Europe and the United States, including the United Nations, hope to achieve a "comprehensive, verifiable and irreversible" denuclearization of the peninsula. Pyongyang is pursuing "both sides gradually and synchronously disarmament", and the United States ensures the security of the North Korea; China and Russia want to reduce the US military deposit in East Asia while demanding the denuclearization of the peninsula. In other words, the DPRK should abandon nuclear weapons, but the US side should also make concessions (such as sad anti missile system).
Although Trump and Kim Jeong-eun sat down to talk about the "special fund meeting", in fact, the two people were also carrying many interests at the same time. Whether Pyongyang abandons nuclear power, how to discard nuclear weapons and when to abandon nuclear weapons depends on the extent to which Trump and the United States, Japan and Korea represent concessions.
It is hard to imagine that over the years, North Korea, which guided nuclear activities as a survival chip, would take the initiative to abandon nuclear weapons without compromise. Therefore, achieving nuclear denuclearization on the peninsula will be a long-term process and must be completed in several stages.
The first stage from this "special gold conference" began, the specific results may be the following: 1) the two sides agreed to end the Korean War from 1950 to 1953 in the form of peace, and the peace treaty will be jointly signed by the four parties of the year of the war (the North Korea and the US) on other occasions. 2) the US side ensures the security of the DPRK (not pursuing the change of Pyongyang regime); the DPRK agrees to stop its nuclear program. 3) the DPRK and the US have opened the normalization process of bilateral relations and made preparations for the formal establishment of diplomatic relations.
If the talks between the two sides are successful, they will not rule out the possibility of extending the "special fund meeting". If the talks fail, it is not surprising that the talks will be closed ahead of schedule. But the possibility of the latter should not be too great, because both Trump and Kim Jeong-eun are in urgent need of diplomatic success.
A few days ago, US Secretary of state Pompeio (Mike Pompeo) suggested that he was interested in doing something big and courageous. The author estimates that what he referred to should be the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries. It is conceivable that if the Singapore summit is successful, the two sides will likely continue the next round of summit talks (Pyongyang or Washington) in a short time, and then push the peace process to the second stage.
At this stage, the two sides will achieve half of the total.
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