Is silver long really falling down? It's far from the death penalty, but the dilemma is still there.

Is silver long really falling down? It's far from the death penalty, but the dilemma is still there.

Publicly available data, Yin long business is normal, but prospects remain suspense. Whether Dong Mingzhu can be re elected chairman of GREE Electric is a key variable.

Original title: is silver long really going to fall?

Caijing reporter Han Shulin / Wen Mark / Editor

In May 30th, the Guangdong Securities Regulatory Bureau disclosed the schedule of the guidance work of the listed companies as of March 31st, and the Zhuhai silon new energy stock company was in the list. Information shows that in January 17, 2018, the counselling status of its listing work was updated as guidance termination.

In May 2017, the information revealed by the Guangdong Securities Regulatory Bureau showed that Zhuhai silon was in Guangdong securities regulatory bureau for the record registration. The current update means that the bank will not seek a listing for the time being.

According to the "financial" reporters from the people familiar with the information, silsilon suspended listing early in the plan, after Dong Mingzhu's personal investment silver long, especially after the management change, although the listing guidance, but Dong Mingzhu is not urgent to IPO, the company has taken the initiative to postpone the listing agenda.

But the doubts surrounding silon are still heavy. In May, a number of media reported that the Hebei Wuan factory of silver dragon reduced production greatly. Some local people told the finance and economics reporter that more than 2000 employees were in the factory at the peak of the Wuan factory in silon, which began to decrease last winter, with only about 500 employees left.

Silsilon has attracted much attention from Dong Mingzhu, chairman of GREE Electronics (000651.SZ) chairman, and Dong Mingzhu's stay in GREE electrical appliances is also involved in the heart of the Bank of silver. A number of interviewed Yin long suppliers said that if Dong Mingzhu could be re elected as chairman of GREE, it would be good for Yin long.

Silsilon has not fallen down

In January this year, Yin long broke out the problem of arrears of suppliers' payment. According to incomplete statistics provided by the supplier to finance and economics, the amount of arrears was over 1 billion 200 million yuan.

Since then, Yin long has gradually returned suppliers' arrears. According to the "finance and economics" reporter recently from some suppliers to understand, the main suppliers of arrears are more or less received a return, the proportion of the return is different, usually around 10%, of which the battery supplier's return is relatively good. Some suppliers continue to supply Yin long, while others no longer supply. Suppliers also indicated that the payment received was mainly commercial, and it could not be paid directly, so there were risks.

A supplier to the "finance and economics" reporters said, do not want silver long to fall, or will not be able to get a penny, now everyone is difficult, and is not willing to blame too much.

Also, some suppliers expressed optimism that the current situation was better than in January, and the return of the country was improved in the previous period of state subsidies.

GREE electronics in April 26th disclosed the information with the silver long company related transactions announcement: in 2017, Zhuhai silver long revenue of 8 billion 752 million yuan, net profit of 268 million yuan. In 2016, Yin Long's revenue and net profit were 7 billion 898 million yuan and 836 million yuan respectively. Since the subsidy standard of new energy bus has been substantially adjusted in 2017, it also affected the profitability of the bank.

In addition, the GREE announcement also showed that as at the end of 2017, the total assets of Zhuhai Silver Dragon amounted to 31 billion 512 million yuan and the total liabilities amounted to 23 billion 767 million yuan.

In early 2017, as the electric vehicle subsidy policy was drastically adjusted by the end of 2016, the energy density requirement was raised and the allowance was reduced, many battery and new energy vehicle companies needed time to complete the product upgrade to meet the new subsidy standards, so the sales of new energy vehicles were greatly reduced in the first quarter of 2017. Less.

This year, the subsidy for electric cars, including new energy buses, is down again, but unlike last year, this year's subsidy policy set a transition period. The transition period was from February 12th to June 11th. During this period, the new energy bus was 0.7 times the subsidy standard in 2017. It must be 0.6 times that of 2017. In addition, the system energy density of full subsidy is increased from 95Wh/kg to 115Wh/kg.

As an example, a new energy passenger car with 10 meters above the energy density is taken as an example. Before February 12th, the state subsidy is 300 thousand yuan, and the state subsidy of the country from February 12th to June 11th is 210 thousand yuan, and the national subsidy of 180 thousand yuan can be obtained after June 11th.

In order to strive for higher subsidies, car companies hope to clean up their stock as much as possible in the transition period in order to increase the energy density and set up the transition period. Therefore, the production and marketing of new energy buses did not appear in early 2017, but relatively stable in the first half of this year, compared with the same period last year. Significant growth. But in order to update the product to meet the new subsidy standard, this makes the sales of new energy bus, as usual, will mainly erupt in the second half year.

Under such a market background, Yin long has behaved in the present way. The first electric network statistics show that from January to April, the Zhuhai new energy bus produced by the Bank of Yin long was 878, ranking sixth. The statistics of electric vehicle information network show that in the first quarter, Zhuhai Silver Dragon sales volume was 499, ranking seventh. In the first quarter of 2017, its sales volume was only 12, and the total sales volume was 3355.

A supplier who understands the business situation of silver long told the finance and economics that at present, there are about 2800 orders on hand, and not including the intent order. At present, Yin long is mainly looking for bus orders in Zhuhai, Chengdu and Nanjing, and these cities are also areas where Yin long has invested.

The controversial issue of silver long in the industry is its lithium titanate battery technology. The advantages and disadvantages of the battery are obvious. The advantages are good fast charging performance, long cycle life and good low temperature performance. The disadvantage is that the energy density is lower than the main battery technology such as lithium iron phosphate, three yuan battery and so on, which leads to the short mileage of automobile, which is considered as a suitable technical route in the bus scene.

However, one of the trends of domestic subsidy policy is increasing the battery energy density requirement year after year. If the energy density is below a certain standard, subsidies will be discounted or even not subsidized. Therefore, the new energy buses produced by the silver dragon do not all use their lithium titanate, but also purchase the lithium iron phosphate batteries for the mainstream electric buses.

Suspense still remains

At present, the operation of Yin long is far from the death penalty, but it has not been out of the woods yet. The decisive factor for its prospects may not be in the bank itself, but in the fate of its eye-catching investor, Dong Mingzhu.

At the end of 2016, after trying to push GREE's purchase of silver long, Dong Mingzhu invested silver long in his personal identity, now the second largest shareholder in silvery, holding 17.40%.

After Dong Mingzhu invested in the bank, his management gradually changed blood. The senior executives of a number of GREE electrical appliances entered the core department head of silver long, the founder team representative Wei Yincang and sun Guo Hua, who left the chairman, and the current chairman Lu Chunquan was the general manager of the capital, one of the early investment parties of silver long. The current president and corporate representative Lai Xin Hua had served as the general Jing of the GREE Zhengzhou company. Reason.

In January, a supplier to the finance and economics reporter said that the production, technology and purchasing personnel are not the source of the line of production, technology and purchasing, which is not able to deal with such large enterprises. The problem is that they are mostly from the air conditioning industry. It is difficult to understand the characteristics of the electric vehicle industry in a short time.

But the new team is trying to integrate into the company, and the former supplier recently told finance and economics reporters that he feels that silon is now more systematic than previous management, and that he does not need to repeat many departments again, but for him, the key is to receive a return.

Dong Mingzhu's stay in GREE remains the most concerned issue for stakeholders. Many of the suppliers surveyed said they hoped Dong Mingzhu would be the chairman of GREE electric again, which would be good for her investment. Suppliers also hope that if Dong Mingzhu is re elected, he can restart the acquisition of silver dragon.

In March 2017, after the failure of the acquisition of silkon, GREE held a shareholder meeting to approve a bill associated with the silkon. According to the agreement between the two parties, the two parties planned to take one year as a cycle to purchase each other's products with a total amount of not more than 20 billion yuan. But this agreement is not designed to ensure the sale of the new energy vehicle, but the sale of GREE intelligent equipment. According to the agreement at that time, the expected amount of the related transactions was 1 billion yuan for GREE's purchase of silver dragon products, and 19 billion yuan for silver dragon's purchase of GREE's products.

The final trading situation is far below the forecast, according to GREE's recent announcement, by December 31, 2017, the actual transaction amount of the two sides is only 1 billion 942 million yuan, far below its estimated value of 20 billion yuan. And in each other's transactions, GREE procured only about 40 million yuan of new energy vehicles and energy storage equipment, while the silver long purchase of GREE's DBA air conditioning and intelligent equipment was over 1 billion 900 million yuan, most of which were purchased for intelligent equipment.

GREE sells silon far more than silenon to GREE, and this trend will continue. According to the announcement, the two sides expect the 2018 related transaction amount not to exceed 1 billion 500 million yuan, of which GREE purchases silver long products not more than 200 million yuan, and the silver long purchase of GREE is not more than 1 billion 300 million yuan.

It is hoped that the supplier of Dong Mingzhu's reappointment believes that if Dong Mingzhu left GREE, he lost the halo, and the business of GREE will not be stable. No matter whether he is in charge of silver long or not, there will be no essential difference. If Dong Mingzhu stays in GREE, as the second largest shareholder of silver long, he will benefit both sides in developing their business.

Dong Mingzhu's stay in GREE is still a suspense of great concern and no conclusion.

For the future management changes of GREE electric, the attitude of Zhuhai SASAC, a major shareholder, is very important. In May 16th, GREE held a GREE event in Zhuhai, in which Dong Mingzhu offered to mention the topic of the board of directors. She said, "whether Dong Mingzhu retires and retire is a natural rule, but I think I'm still young today. Although I am more than 60 years old, my heart is like 25 years old. "

On the day of the grand ceremony, Guo Yonghang from the Standing Committee of the Shenzhen municipal Party committee and Secretary General of the Secretary General of the Zhuhai Municipal Committee of the Communist Party of China also attended and spoke in February. In his speech, he said "wish young Dong Mingzhu to lead the young GREE, the greater the career, the greater the stronger." This attitude was quickly interpreted by the market as the Zhuhai municipal government's support for Dong Mingzhu's re-election. He thought his re-election would be a foregone conclusion.

However, the current board of GREE electrical appliances should expire in May 31, 2018, but until June 5th, GREE electric issued a bulletin that the new board of directors, the board of supervisors, and the nomination of the board of supervisors are still in progress, and the change of the board of directors and the board of supervisors will be properly postponed. At the same time, the term of office of the board of directors and senior management of the board of directors of the company is also postponed accordingly.

Obviously, waiting for the outcome of GREE electric board's change will be more than GREE shares.

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