Original title: Jin Canrong: Trump feels that the meeting is very successful, but the establishment party may not buy it.
Trump, the leader of the US and the DPRK, is closer to his "Nobel Prize".
All sides also expressed a full affirmation of the meeting, but for Trump, his problem may have just begun. After all, there are a group of opponents in the country waiting for him to go off the plane.
It is also worried that this is just a political show. How much will the joint statement of the United States and the DPRK be implemented, and will it become a dead paper again? Will the future be optimistic or pessimistic in the future?
Observer Network Interview professor Jin Canrong of Renmin University of China University of International Relations and American expert, interpret "Golden Summit".
The biggest result of the golden club is that the two sides signed a joint statement. How do you evaluate the "denuclearization" of North Korea mentioned in the joint statement and the "security guarantee" of the United States to the DPRK?
Jin Canrong: the joint statement by Trump and Kim Jeong-eun mentioned that "the declaration of the Panmunjom in April 27, 2018 will be observed and the" Peninsular complete denuclearization "will continue to be promoted, but the declaration of the Panmunjom itself is rather weak in the" denuclearization ", with its definition of" denuclearization ". There is no solution to it.
From the point of view of the joint statement, fourth can be taken to retrieve the remains of the prisoners of war and the missing persons, but the Clinton period has been returned to the remains, and it is not fresh. Others, including the so-called "new US relations with the US and the DPRK", North Korea's denuclearization commitment, the peace agreement, are only a commitment, and the previous statement of final war has not been predicted.
So I think the results of the golden club are relatively weak, and maybe Trump is not very good to go back to, and the construction group is certainly not satisfied, because at least the timetable of abandoning the core at least, so I tend to predict that the American system will think this is a diplomatic failure.
The two sides must continue to talk about the next step, but it depends on the degree of acceptance of the domestic system. I think the system will not be satisfactory, and it is a concession to the United States. Since the United States has already said that it is a package to solve the North Korean nuclear issue, there is a clear timetable and a clear standard: comprehensive, verifiable and irreversible nuclear abandonment, but now it is only a commitment, and it is undenuclearization, without a timetable, without conditions, under the DPRK declaration. The things are too weak.
As for the security guarantees mentioned by Trump, including the consideration of the abolition of military exercises, it is welcome from the point of view of China and the DPRK, but I estimate that they are very angry from the perspective of the United States, especially the construction group. So what's the result?
If you say so, the system is not satisfied, and the political trust between the US and the DPRK itself is very low. To what extent will this joint statement be practiced, and will it be returned to the talks before it comes to something?
Jin Canrong: I think this possibility is very big. DPRK always wants to be good with the United States and wants to talk with the United States, so it has not changed much. Now mainly in the United States, the former president of the United States has not met with the North Korean leaders, and now Trump has agreed, so he has a little exception, the success of this meeting, to a large extent related to Trump's personality. In addition to a person, the Secretary of state Pompeio, the Americans think he is ambitious, he wants to run for president, so he needs diplomatic success. In fact, when Paulo Pao was the director of the CIA, the United States began to talk with the DPRK, but it was the intelligence department rather than the diplomatic department. The frame of the diplomatic department should be a little more and more thoughtful, but the professional characteristics of the intelligence department are to destroy a lot of rules. It is the result oriented, the purpose is very clear, the problem is less and the rebound will be bigger.
The confrontation between the United States and the United States for more than 60 years, now able to sit down and talk, is worth affirming, but as I said before, this joint statement is empty, I estimate that the American system is certainly not satisfied, so the behind variable is quite big, this is one of my calculations.
This time, Kim Jeong-eun's special plane to Singapore was provided by China, after which Kim Jeong-eun came to China for the two time. How do you evaluate China's role in the whole process?
Jin Canrong: China is of course a huge existence. First of all, from the physical existence, no matter how to solve the Korean Peninsula problem, China will not go around China. Second, China's attitude is to persuade to talk. In this meeting, China is objectively understanding, and the subjective table state is very positive, the two China and the DPRK head of state. The meeting also strengthened the confidence of the DPRK. Technical assistance, such as sending special planes, is a piece of cake for China, mainly political support, and China has always had a positive attitude towards the talks, which is also an important reason for the success of the talks.
China has been advocating a "double pause, double track and advance" solution. Is this the result of the talks, is it also moving in the direction of China's hope?
Jin Canrong: is it not easy to say that it is directly influenced by China, but objectively it is to achieve this effect. Because of the talks, the DPRK was very restrained and took the lead in suspending the nuclear test. At a press conference after the talks, Trump also said that the US and South Korea military performance did constitute a threat to the DPRK and considered stopping the military performance. From the objective point of view, the "double pause" has been realized. In the future, we can solve this problem in accordance with our double track China, and we need to take another look at it. But in any case, China must have an objective influence in the process of the Korean Peninsula. Up to now, China has been supporting the peaceful resolution of the Korean nuclear issue, and its realization is also in line with China's wishes.
There has been a six party talks to resolve the DPRK nuclear issue, but now the mechanism has been broken by bilateral contacts. Will the settlement of the DPRK nuclear issue follow the previous multilateral talks or will it continue to turn to bilateral relations?
Jin Canrong: the six party talks is a method advocated by China, which is also useful for some time. Later, the multilateral mechanism has been left out because of the rise of bilateral contradictions between the United States and the DPRK. At present, I think the US and DPRK are more willing to solve their bilateral rhythm, and the six party talks may be on hold for some time. But it will not be permanently shelved, because when the peninsula peace mechanism is finally established, the relevant parties affected by the Peninsula issue have the right to speak. At that time, a part of the problem is not ruled out to six parties, but in the short term it seems not to be able to do so. What we can see at the moment is that it is probably a bilateral exchange and problem solving. The future may be a point in the future, when many countries are involved, and the six party talks will not be excluded from the resurrection.
At the G7 summit, Trump and the Western allies were very stiff. In the Middle East, because of a bad relationship with the Iraq nuclear agreement, and a trade war with China, he extended a friendship to the DPRK. How should he look at the overall diplomatic distribution of Trump?
Jin Canrong: in terms of political vanity, in fact, Trump is in a bad country now, and needs to find a diplomatic problem to build a career, so he chose North Korea. And he hopes to get the Nobel peace prize, like Obama, by pushing forward the progress of the DPRK, so that there will be some political capital in the face of domestic criticism of his liberals.
In terms of political needs, Trump will focus on Iran in the future. After the stability of the North Korean nuclear power, he may exert greater pressure on Iran. The North Korean luck is built on the unfortunate situation of Iran.
In addition, the North Korean nuclear issue can be handled well. Trump can also play an additional card in the Sino US game. Because in the Sino US game, the main attacking target of the DPRK is the United States. Objectively, the status of the United States is not very favorable. It is clear that North Korea has never been a Chinese card, but objectively he fought against the United States rather fiercely and had little restraint on the United States. If North Korea is to strike a balance between China and the United States, the United States can also have some advantages in the Sino US game.
So these three considerations led Trump to make such a decision and had not yet coordinated with the major members of the construction group. He decided to see it, and the South Korea announced the United States and the DPRK to meet. It was very strange that he had not done it yet. Of course, he now has a helper, Pompeio, who is ambitious and wants to make meritorious service on the Korean issue and pave the way for him to go to the White House later. Therefore, leaders' personal preferences and personal ambitions play a very important role in policy making. Of course, the final outcome is not clear. If the final result is unfavourable to the United States, the American establishment generally believes that Trump has been fooled, but he will be unlucky behind it.
Click on the entry:
Trump's historic meeting with Kim Jeong-eun in the lion city meeting
Editor in responsibility: Yu Pengfei
Waonews is a news media from China, with hundreds of translations, rolling updates China News, hoping to get the likes of foreign netizens