Secret: which part of China has the largest population in 2020?


Secret: which part of China has the largest population in 2020?

Original title: in 2020, where is the largest population in China?

Why do people like to get together in the city?

Looking at the world, this trend has continued to increase so far, and the "urbanization" tide is rolling forward.

Economist Zhou Qiren said people are not only social creatures, but also "social animals who tend to gather".

In China, more than 20 cities illustrate this point through the "new talent policy".

Beyond the representation of "new talent policy", the general direction of urban population agglomeration has long been clear.

Which place is the most populous

Recently, Hainan has issued a new population development plan. By 2020, the population of the permanent population reached 9 million 960 thousand and the urbanization rate was 60%. By 2030, the resident population reached 12 million 480 thousand and the urbanization rate was 70%.

Guangdong province also issued similar plans in February this year. By 2020, the permanent population reached 114 million and the urbanization rate was 71.7%; by 2030 the permanent population reached 125 million, and the urbanization rate was 76.7%.

Looking forward, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian and other 20 places have also issued population development plans.

The programmatic document guiding the national population development plan is the national population development plan (2016-2030) issued by the State Council in December 30, 2016.

China and the new society is a direct vehicle based on public information, combing the national provincial administrative region to the number of permanent residents in 2020 (except Hongkong, Macao, Taiwan and unpublished areas), the top 10 of the provincial administrative region as a whole has not changed much, but the number of population and the order of ranking have been adjusted.

From the permanent population, there will be 3 provincial level administrative divisions, namely Guangdong, Henan and Shandong. It is worth noting that although Henan is a large household registration population, the number of permanent residents is no match for Guangdong. At the end of 2017, the country ranked third.

In addition, different from other places, Beijing and Shanghai tend to control the population expression, such as "the permanent population of Beijing is controlled within 23 million people in 2020" and "the permanent population of Shanghai in 2035 is controlled in 25 million people".

From the ranking order, the population of Henan is expected to surpass Shandong and become the second largest resident population in the country after Guangdong. Although Hubei has not released data, it is still expected to enter the top ten by the end of 2017.

The population development plan of the State Council shows that in 2020, China's total population reached 1 billion 420 million yuan, reaching 1 billion 450 million people in 2030. By 2030, the total size of the population reached its peak.

The economy behind the population is the economy

Behind the growth and mobility of population is economic development.

Therefore, we might as well jump out of the logic of the "new talent policy" of a single city, and observe the population changes from the perspective of urbanization.

First, look at the two sets of figures. The urbanization rate of China's permanent residents is close to 60%, while the urbanization rate of registered population is only 40%.

"This means that 1/3 of the population in the city is rural household registration." Nie Riming, a researcher at the Shanghai Institute of Finance and law and the graduate student of the Institute of population research, Fudan University, believes that they are limited to the household registration and can not enjoy the same public resources as education and pension in the city, which restricts the economic growth.

Urbanization is the engine of stimulating economic growth.

The national population development plan requires 100 million non registered population to be settled in cities. In 2016-2020 years, the urbanization rate of registered permanent residence population increased by 1 percentage points annually, with an average annual turnover of more than 13 million people.

This naturally falls on the shoulders of the city.

Which cities need and have the ability to absorb the population?

Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and other urban agglomeration should strictly control the size of the population of the super large cities and megacities, and guide the population in order to the small and medium-sized cities.

In the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the Chengdu Chongqing region, it is necessary to make greater and stronger central cities, strengthen the radiation driving effect on the surrounding underdeveloped areas, and create an important population agglomeration in the country.

The Shandong Peninsula, the West Bank of the Strait, the East and the middle of the Liaoning Province and other eastern regions should further strengthen the linkage development of the large and medium sized cities in the region, and enhance the attraction of the transfer of the population in the Midwest.

Hah Chang, Central Plains, Guan Zhong, Beibu Bay, central Shanxi, hubun, Hubei, Central Guizhou, Central Yunnan, Lanxi and Ningxia along the Yellow River and the north slope of the Tianshan Mountains have accelerated the growth of more support regions.

So, at the end of 2017, the statistics of Beijing and Shanghai did not increase or fall. Wuhan, Chengdu and Xi'an, once the new talent policy was issued, attracted one hundred thousand people to settle down.

If this formulation is not clear enough, the establishment of a national central city is more direct.

In addition to Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Chongqing, from May 2016 to February 2018, the NDRC and the Ministry of housing and construction supported Chengdu, Wuhan, Zhengzhou and Xi'an to build the national central city.

The 4 cities have issued a new talent deal.

Nie Riming believes that China's urbanization has entered a new stage.

The nineteen major reports point out that the main contradiction to be solved in the future is "the contradiction between the people's growing needs for a better life and the uneven development of the imbalance".

The imbalance here includes imbalance in regional development. To solve regional imbalance and promote economic growth needs talents.

What is the growth of the economy

Does it depend on real estate?

In May of this year, Xi'an and Chengdu were affected by the favorable policies of the new talents. Some people doubt that these cities have to rely on the old way of relying on real estate development.

It is necessary to know that the transformation of new and old kinetic energy should be realized to high quality development, and the new kinetic energy leading to the development of high quality is "made in China 2025", it is network information technology, artificial intelligence and so on, not real estate.

Zhang Ming, a researcher with the Institute of economics and politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the adjustment of the current real estate regulation in some cities of China needs to be adjusted. To lower house prices, on the one hand, we need to curb demand, and on the other hand we need to increase supply.

"Urban development can not let high housing prices scare away new talent." China News Agency is a Xi'an citizen interviewed by a through train.

In the face of new development opportunities, Shen Xiaoming, the governor of Hainan Province, said that the firm's determination to reduce the economic dependence on real estate will not allow Hainan to become a real estate processing plant.

Guizhou, located in the central region, takes the lead in the field of big data. Sichuan, with the advantages of the comprehensive transport hub in the west, will usher in opportunities for development.

No matter what, "Ci yuan" says that cities are densely populated and developed by industry and commerce.

Responsible editor: Gui Qiang


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