Original title: even the crayfish have gone. How far is the Chinese team from the world cup?
The opening of the world cup, Moscow is full of Chinese elements, Chinese people bought forty thousand tickets, Wanda, VIVO, Mengniu, Hisense, Yad, occupied nearly 1/3 of the strong sponsor seat, even the crayfish have gone through the sea.
"In the Russian World Cup, China went all the way but the football team." Bai Yansong, the host of CCTV, said.
So how far is the Chinese team from the world cup? We try to find out the answers from the data.
Look at points: how much success does China owe to the world cup?
If China wants to enter the world cup, it must pass the qualifying competition in the Asian region. In the 7 World Cup, there were 6 points with the lowest average score between 1.50 and 1.67, while the other was 2.13 points of Saudi Arabia in the 2002 World Cup in Korea and Japan (no "host country" Korea and Japan, and only two of the Asian regions of the world cup). Excluding the special case, the average score of the above 6 values is 1.57 points.
And the five countries in the world cup are Iran, Australia, Japan, South Korea and Saudi Arabia. The Chinese team halted the third round qualifying match in the Asian region, ranking fifth in the group, 10 points from the shortlisted leader Iran, and 3 from the second place South Korea.
See the net winning goal: 0.3 balls per game
The gap between the Chinese team and the Asian team will not be as simple as that.
We can see the difference in the performance level between the average score and the average score in the pre selected match of the Chinese team and the Asian competition area (average score = total score / match of the pre selected team, the average score = total goal number / competition in the pre selection, the average number of lost balls = the total number of lost balls in the pre selection) / ratio. Race time). The average score can reflect the overall performance level of the team.
The Iran team with the highest average score in the Asian team was one point higher than the Chinese team. The average score of the Chinese team was 80% of the highest ranking South Korea. This gap is almost the same as before.
Look at the average number of goals and the average number of lost balls. The average number of lost balls in the South Korea, the Saudi Arabia and the Chinese team is the same. Even the Australian team's loss is 0.1 higher than that of the Chinese team. From this figure, the defense ability of the Chinese team can enter the world cup.
But considering the net victory, the average net winning goal of 4 teams in the 5 teams was over 0.5, of which Korea was 0.1 and the Chinese were -0.2, that is to say, the gap between each game was 0.3.
Player value: half of the pass line.
In order to further understand the strength gap between the team and the Chinese team, in addition to the performance of the pre selection, look at the value of the team and the situation in which the members play the professional league in foreign countries. With the use of the German transfer market website TransferMarkt to calculate the market value of the team (measured by potential factors, players' performance data, coach evaluation and intra consensus), we can, to a certain extent, compare the strength of the Chinese team and the Asian team.
As you can see, although the Chinese team is only three points (20%) from the South Korean team, the total market value of the Korean team is 8 times that of the Chinese team, and the most expensive (the most expensive player) of their team, Sun Xingmin, is 31 times more than the Chinese team's most expensive player, Wu Lei. And Saudi Arabia, the most valuable team, is worth more than twice the value of the Chinese team.
Of course, the difference in the value of the players does not fully confirm the team's gap in the game, for example, although Saudi Arabia has no "luxury" of the South Korean team, the average score (1.9) and the average score (1.7) in the Asian qualifier are higher than that of South Korea. But through the team value, we also see the difference between the Chinese team and the Asian finalists.
Another dimension can also reveal the gap between Chinese players and their players. It is the number of players who play football in high professional league matches.
5 Asian teams entering the world cup have different proportions of players playing professional league matches abroad, and at least 3 Saudi Arabian teams. But the Chinese team has no one! And every player in the team has at least one player playing in the top five league countries of the world (Britain, Spain, Germany, Italy, France).
Such a discovery directly reflects the difference between the strength of the Chinese team and the five Asian teams. It seems that China desperately needs "Yao Ming in the football field". It is obvious that the current Wu Lei is obviously deterrent and lack of fire.
Who will be the top player in the world cup?
Of course, there is still a dream. Let's see how far the Chinese team is from the top players in the world cup. We compared the average score of the 32 teams in the group preliminary, and the defending champion Germany was the best team to perform in the pre competition with ten wins and ten wins. In 2010, the champions Spain and the Belgian team, which had made great progress in recent years, also scored remarkable results in the qualifying match, ranking second in the 2.8 average. The Portuguese and Swiss teams followed closely and scored an average of 2.7.
From the point of view of the attack, the German and Belgium teams were the two most powerful teams in the group's pretest, ranking the first with an average of 4.3 goals per game. The offensive ability of Spain and Portugal should not be underestimated.
Judging from defensive ability, Morocco ranked first in the amazing performance of six zero losses. Iran ranked second in ten games with just two goals. Spain and England averaged third out of 0.3 goals per game.
In addition to the preliminaries, the three teams with the largest number of stars, the most luxurious lineup and the highest value of players are Spain, France and Germany.
In view of the above four indicators, Germany is really expected, Spain and France also have a list, while Brazil and Argentina are still a strong team, although they have not appeared in these pictures. So, which team can turn from "top player" to "number one player" in the 2018 World Cup?
Editor in responsibility: Zhang Yu
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