Wang Hailiang, deputy director of the Shanghai Institute of East Asian Studies, held an analysis of the 12 summit of the US DPRK held in Hongkong on 14 October. Wang Hailiang believes that the attention of the world's attention will be signed by two leaders and announced a joint statement, which has opened a new chapter in the history of East Asia. It is hard to achieve such a great turn, but the road ahead may be more difficult. North Korea's abandonment of nuclear weapons will be tortuous and difficult. It needs us to provide enough impetus. This is not a political reward and economic advantage, but a credible security guarantee. The two sides need to take substantive actions to enhance mutual trust. Wang Hailiang also said that the success of the special gold medal also contributed to China. In the process of the whole peninsula's denuclearization and peace building, China has not only played and will continue to play the main role of advocacy and suggestion, but also will continue to play the role of political backing and security guarantor.
An invaluable first step
Wang Hailiang believes that the US DPRK summit marks the end of the 70 years of hostilities between the DPRK and the US, and the peace process on the Korean Peninsula will open. In historical status, this concise joint statement can be compared with the 1972 Sino US joint communique. The two heads of state without diplomatic relations reached a peaceful consensus through the meeting and opened the door to normalization of bilateral relations.
Wang Hailiang believed that the United States and the DPRK established a framework for resolving the problem of denuclearization and peace in the peninsula with determination, courage and wisdom. This is undoubtedly a major breakthrough in the security stalemate in East Asia, so it can be said that this is a successful, landmark summit.
Careful analysis of the content of the joint statement, Wang Hailiang said, in particular, the two sides stressed the normalization of the relationship and the peace of the peninsula, and reduced the adjustment and tension on the issue of the denuclearization of the peninsula. "This shows that the United States has accepted the framework of the DPRK's handling of the problem, that is, not to solve the nuclear issue alone, but to put the denuclearization in the large framework of the peace of the peninsula, on the premise of equality and respect."
Wang Hailiang believes that it is clear that one of the political conditions for the US and DPRK summit is that the United States recognizes that the DPRK is a normal sovereign state, not a "evil regime" that must be overthrown. The process of negotiations between the two sides will also be the normalization process of bilateral relations, followed by the willingness of the DPRK to negotiate a separate stage of abandonment, but the US side wants to ensure the DPRK. It's safe. "Pragmatic Trump has urged the US side to accept the conditions of the DPRK and play a key role."
Wang Hailiang analyses that the US side's hawkish silence is much more quiet, although the White House national security adviser and "Eagle" Bolton are here in spite of the large scale talks between the two sides. This situation shows that Trump played a key role in the process of the US side's promise to the DPRK.
Wang Hailiang said the atmosphere of the special gold conference was harmonious, friendly and relaxed, and the two sides were basically prepared and prepared, so they were not too nervous and expressive, but they looked like old acquaintances.
Wang Hailiang analysis said that, from the interaction of the special gold conference, Trump and Kim Jeong-eun were both decent and appropriate, as a whole, like a gentleman's meeting, the style of Trump was more happy, the feeling of success overstated, the frequent handshake and the thumbs up, giving people the feeling that he needed gold more. Cooperation; Kim Jeong-eun is a winning expression, no need to say more expression, behave more restrained, more stable.
No mutual trust can't go down
Wang Hailiang said that it was hard to achieve such a great turn, but the road behind it might be more difficult.
Wang Hailiang believes that the DPRK's abandonment will be tortuous and tortuous, requiring the us to provide enough power, not political returns and economic benefits, but credible security. The United States also needs the power of the DPRK to support the trust of the DPRK. This requires mutual trust and mutual trust, and no way to abandon nuclear power and peace. As a measure to enhance mutual trust, both sides need to take substantive action.
Wang Hailiang believes that the next step is to say what Trump will do to ensure that the United States will see a bright future, and that the US will begin to revoke the economic sanctions against the DPRK, and even provide the DPRK with the necessary special economic assistance, and replace the actions of the DPRK to carry out the nuclear abandonment. Verification by international agencies; the United States has drawn up a plan to withdraw from South Korea in exchange for the DPRK's abandonment of long-range missiles.
"Without such positive interaction, mutual trust can not be established and enhanced, so as to promote the complete denuclearization and the peace process on the peninsula." Wang Hailiang said.
He believed that North Korea could really discard its core, which is just like the abandonment of cars in the chess game of China. The original intention of North Korea's nuclear program is to master the "killer weapon", which is equivalent to the "car" in chess, and the North Korean regime and its system are "handsome". "The game to the United States and the United States to this step today," car "has been pegged by the other, and can be abandoned by" car "to exchange for the survival of the regime and the security of the country, the DPRK can abandon the car to keep the game, this is not contrary to the original intention of the North Korea.
For the United States, Wang Hailiang believes that if the opponent can abandon the "car", it loses its mace and no longer has a serious threat, especially the threat to the nuclear strike of the west coast and East Asia base in the United States, and the United States can retire from the "horse cannon" and seek peace. It's a win-win outcome, but it's a big deal Trump likes.
From the perspective of the friendly neighbours of the two Koreas in China and Russia, Wang Hailiang believes that the nuclear weapon in the hands of the DPRK in the hands of the United States, Japan, Japan, Japan, Japan, Japan, Japan, Japan, Japan, Japan, Japan, Japan, Japan, Japan, Japan, Japan, Japan, Japan and Japan.
Wang Hailiang mentioned that there are obstacles, twists and turns in the process of denuclearization and the peace process. But in terms of the state of the peninsula war, the general direction can not be changed and the general trend can not be reversed.
Wang Hailiang analysis indicated that the development of the North Korean nuclear issue has made the United States have a deeper understanding and Reflection on the issue of the peninsula. There is no way out and unsolved, and the ideal of ending it in a peaceful way. So the United States can finally throw away the burden of history and get out of the peninsular mud pool. North Korea has achieved political and security goals through a nuclear program, and the means are to serve the purpose. Through the denuclearization to peaceful construction, the DPRK should be redoubled revenue for the DPRK.
In addition, Wang Hailiang believes that since the United States can not shake the regime of North Korea, it should not obstruct the end of the peninsula because of the political system. In addition, the DPRK and South Korea need the final battle. In addition to nuclear risk factors, the United States has no other reason to obstruct the realization of the final war on the peninsula. Northeast Asia's neighboring countries, China, Russia and Japan, also welcome the final war on the peninsula, and the external conditions are also favorable.
China is a push and a back shield
Wang Hailiang believes that the success of the gold medal also has China's credit, and China has not only provided a special plane.
According to Wang Hailiang, the United States and the DPRK joint statement shows that the results of the US and DPRK summit were not achieved as soon as some people had predicted, but were basically implemented in China. The protagonist of the play is two political stars. They can be self guided and play a single act, but the script is Chinese original.
"This drama is still going on, and the script is still in China. China has also provided extremely important security for the DPRK. " Wang Hailiang said that the North Korean nuclear abandonment is the premise that China can do its reliable backing. In case the US side faces the abandonment of the nuclear power and threatens the DPRK again, the DPRK is unable to counteract it, then China will intervene to prevent the unjustified action of the US side. Russia will hold the same position and take similar actions.
"We must know that the signatories to the peninsula's final war agreement can not be short of China, and that China is void." Wang Hailiang said that the fear of China being marginalized by the US - DPRK negotiations is a violation of common sense.
Wang Hailiang believes that in the process of the whole peninsula's denuclearization and peace building, China has not only played and will continue to play the main role of advocacy and suggestion, but also will continue to play the role of political backing and security guarantor.
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