China should be alert to "rule competition"


China should be alert to

Original title: rational fight! China needs to be vigilant about "rule competition" in the United States

On the 11 day, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce issued a statement on the US side's announcement of a tariff list to be exported to the United States for $200 billion.

The spokesman said it was totally unacceptable for the United States to publish the tax list in an accelerated manner. We solemnly protest this. The actions of the US side are hurting China, hurting the whole world, and hurting ourselves. This irrational behavior is unpopular.

China is shocked by the action of the United States. In order to safeguard the core interests of the state and the fundamental interests of the people, the Chinese government will, as always, have to make the necessary counter - system. At the same time, we call on the international community to work together to safeguard free trade rules and multilateral trading systems and jointly oppose trade bullying. At the same time, we will immediately prosecute the unilateral actions of the US side to the world trade organization.

This shows that China is determined to win the trade war.

"China is very confident to win this trade war!" Recently, Mr. Dong Yan, director of the international trade room of the Institute of world economics and politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, represented the "contest behind the Forum - the trade dispute between China and the United States" hosted by the China News Agency.

In the view of Dong Yan, China must fight and win in this trade war.

Resolute in the fight

"When Trump took his first year in office, the Chinese side had made two rounds of very important adjustment process and made some very good negotiations with the US side, but after these two times, the US side was not satisfied." Dong Yan said.

After that, the US side did not abide by the consensus reached and overcharged China's acceptable bottom line.

In March 8th, the United States formally approved a 25% tariff on imported steel and a 10% tariff on imported aluminum. In March 22nd, Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on China's $60 billion commodity. In April 3rd, the United States formally proposed a 50 billion dollar tariff on goods in China. Since then, it has intensified and threatened to make a $200 billion tax collection list.

"China has made some short-term buffering mechanisms, and has made some gradual adjustment, structural reform in all aspects of the access arrangements, but after so much, the United States still resolutely fought trade war. At this time, I think there is only one choice as a rational person in China." It is a resolute answer. "

In addition, Dong Yan believes that, in essence, it is essentially a policy of trade protectionism and liberalization in the nature of trade protectionism in the history of the United States, but in essence, it has always solved its own domestic problems by means of protectionism and external transfer.

"For example, the first American family history, for example, is the way of protectionism. When the American industry has had a strong advantage, it continues to take protectionist measures in many industries, especially in the process of Sino US exchanges, and the United States has been making China's trade policy and its appointment." The combination is very tight. "

How to fight

In the face of the largest trade war in the history of economic history to date, how will China fight? Dong Yan gives advice from three aspects.

China has an advantage in international public opinion.

After the United States launched the 232 survey, the major economies in the world adopted basically counteraction measures, such as the two days before the Levy of tariffs was only resorted to WTO. But after the US launched the trade war, it not only took counter measures, but also increased the tariff from 25% to 40%. "In addition, Japan does not support the TPP dispersion and has taken measures different from the United States, and China is an advantage in the overall international opinion."

The impact of trade war on the economy will affect Trump's decision.

Dong Yan said that the economic impact of trade war is destructive to consumers, producers, value chains and the entire trading system. The emerging economic impact of the future will have an impact on Trump's decision making.

In the view of Dong Yan, from the list, it can be seen that the purpose of the United States this time is not to solve the problem of trade imbalance, but to solve the problem of future technology.

"At present, about 59.6% of the 50 billion list are exported to the United States for foreign enterprises, because most of the list is high and new technology products, about 1/3 are computers and communications, and 1/3 of the machinery and so on." "According to the data of the Ministry of science and technology, about 66% of the export of high and new technology products are exported by foreign enterprises, and the United States provokes trade war because of the damage to its own interests in the future technology," Dong Yan said.

Dong Yan believes that the impact of trade war on the US market will also affect Trump's decision.

Dong Yan pointed out that in 2017, the United States emphasized the return of manufacturing industry. At that time, Thailand bicycle factory was produced in the United States and found no corresponding supporting chain at all. Recently, the demand for some American products in the local market is not stable. Companies like Halley have a certain number of overseas markets, including the Asia Pacific market and the European market, to consider market demand and profit support. Therefore, in the face of trade wars, American enterprises may also make some different moves from the US government, which will also affect Trump's decision.

Watch out for American rule competition

Dong Yan said that China needs to be vigilant in addition to more large-scale tariffs and rules competition.

"We need to be vigilant at the next stage, the United States may deal with Sino US frictions in a competitive way, and the United States may take another way to make China's trade adjustment directly." Dong Yan further explained, "such as preventing China from joining the G7 or other ways to control China's development from rules."

Dong Yan said that in the future, China can work with many developing countries and partners to set up a better rule for the world development level. Pay close attention to the pace and path of opening up, especially domestic economic reform. At present, at the international level, China's trade war is absolutely rational and has no problems. At the specific operational level, a series of risk early warning systems should be established.

(according to the director of the international trade room of the Institute of world economics and politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Dong Yan is a forum in China News Agency: a contest behind the Sino US trade dispute.)

Editor in responsibility: Zhang Di


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