China Securities newspaper
Zan Xiuli, an intern reporter of our newspaper
Following the debut of the first live tiger live broadcast live on the NYSE in May 11th, Ying Ke was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in July 12th and became the first stock in Hong Kong stock entertainment live. With a lower valuation and the industry's low profitability, its share price rose more than 40% after an opening of HK $4.32 (HK $3.85), breaking the recent breakout of Hong Kong shares, with a market value of HK $10 billion at a time, and a final close of HK $10.65% to HK $4.26, with a total market value of HK $8 billion 586 million.
But with the drifting draught far away, the competition of the head platform has intensified, and the market thinks that the growth of the customers who rely too much on the live broadcast business is still hidden.
Profit-making ability is far beyond "video three Jers"
Different from the current situation of money burning in direct live and video industry companies, the net profit of the last three years was 1 million 500 thousand yuan, 568 million 200 thousand yuan and 792 million yuan respectively. The company's profitability far exceeds that of this year's landing in the US stock market and has been sought after by the "video three heroes" - beep, Iqiyi and tiger teeth. In the first quarter of 2018, even 31 million 400 thousand yuan of net profit was realized, but it was still less than the show.
Deutsche Deutsche predicts that the net profit of the listed customers will continue to grow, the net profit of 2018 will be close to 1 billion 16 million yuan, and the net profit of 2019 and 2020 will reach RMB 1 billion 216 million yuan and 1 billion 394 million yuan.
Behind the profit growth is huge user support. Founded in three years, it has 36 million 800 thousand hosts and 194 million 500 thousand users. As of 2017, the market share of Ying Ke in mobile terminal live platform reached 15.3%, ranking second in the industry, leading third points 0.3 percentage points.
Market analysts said its valuation was also one of the focus of investors' attention, in addition to the positive profitability of its first day on the market. Previously, Anxin international issued a report that it was priced at HK $3.85-5.00, with its adjusted net profit of 790 million RMB in 2017, 8.3-10.8 times the price earnings ratio of the company's 2017 market value for the company, which was lower than the US stock listed media companies and the time of reunion and the recent listing in the US stock market. The tiger teeth live. Another analysis pointed out that, in view of the late visitors are expected to enter the Hong Kong stock exchange, access to the mainland capital holdings, which also makes its valuation space more imaginative.
Live air vents far away and grow to worry
It is worth noting that in the three major business sectors, live broadcast, online advertising and other business sectors, the proportion of live business accounts for its total income. From 2015 to 2017, the proportion of live broadcast business accounts for 94.6%, 99.8%, and 99.4% of its total income. However, after the industry control and the accelerated shuffling in 2017, the direct seeding industry has gone, coupled with the rapid rise of short video platforms such as quick and fast hand and so on.
In the fourth quarter of 2016, the projected average number of users reached a peak of 30 million 6 thousand, and then it slipped rapidly and then wandered from 20 million 300 thousand to 25 million 300 thousand. At the same time, the growth of the industry has also been declining year by year. According to statistics, the growth rate of online live users in China from 2016 to 2019 was 60.6%, 28.4%, 15.6% and 10.2% respectively.
The slowdown in user scale also lowered the company's revenue level. The prospectus showed that it was founded in March 2015 to achieve 28 million 700 thousand yuan in revenue, reaching a peak in 2016, achieving 4 billion 335 million yuan in revenue, up to 15004%, while in 2017 it fell nearly 10% and revenue was 3 billion 942 million yuan.
In order to get rid of the overdependence on the live business model, COO Liao Jieming said that the independent advertising revenue department has been set up at present. In 2017, the size of the advertising revenue has been greatly improved, and the business models such as "live + +" will continue to be explored after the listing of visitors. The prospectus shows that, in addition to the entertainment show, it continues to force a variety of combination forms such as direct live + e-commerce, direct live + sports, live broadcast + online education and so on, through the creation of super IP, to stimulate the quality of content precipitation.
It is noteworthy that after the industry regulation and industry shuffling in 2017, the front-line platform has built up a competitive barrier. At the same time, at the same time, the fish and pepper are speeding up the capital operation, and are expected to complete the IPO news in the year, which means that the possibility of new players will be further reduced.
But the survival of the front-line platform competition is also increasingly fierce, the major platforms are beginning to develop professionally, in which the tiger tooth live and the fight fish focus game live, and the focus of Ying guests and pepper in the entertainment field. Another analysis pointed out that the competition among the Internet giants will become the key to the competition of live platforms. Tencent, in addition to its own Tencent NOW live, QQ space live, Penguin live platform, also invested in the live live and the tiger teeth live; Alibaba in its system investment in the group, micro-blog, Mo Mo; Baidu to consolidate its own advantages to integrate the live function with the map, video and other existing business.
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