Original title: a flood makes global bitcoin production decline? After the media reports, the Sichuan people laughed.
The recent heavy rains and floods in Sichuan seem to have caused concerns about the impact of the global bitcoin power, because there are many "mines" in the Sichuan province.
In July 9th, the financial times, the financial times, cited the Morgan Stanley analyst's opinion in a report called "the Sichuan flood's impact on global bitcoin production", that "the flood in Sichuan may affect 8% to 10% of the world's bitcoin mining activities."
But daily economic news (micro signal: nbdnews) reporter survey found that this is not the case.
Normal operation of large mines in Sichuan Province
According to the industry research report released by University of Cambridge in April last year, 58% of bitcoin "mines" in China are located in China. Because bitcoin mining activities consume a lot of electricity, hydropower rich Sichuan is an excellent place to operate bitcoin mines.
Recently, Sichuan, Mianyang, Guangyuan, Chengdu, ABA, Meishan and many other places encountered heavy rains and even caused floods and landslides. In some parts of Sichuan, as early as June 27th and 28th, there was a torrential rain. Since June 29th, a group of photos of flooded mining areas in Sichuan have been circulating on the Internet. More attention has been raised after the INblockchain partner Eric Meltzer reprinted the picture, and the news of "tens of thousands of miners flooded" began to spread. In July 9th, the British media Financial Times released another report entitled "Sichuan floods affecting global bitcoin" output.
But is the fact true as mentioned in the foregoing report? Many people in the industry believe that this is only a rumor, not a real case.
The BTC.Top, which runs a large mineral pool in Sichuan, in July 11th, founder Jiang told reporters, "the flood in the Sichuan mine is just an independent event, and the floods last month did not have much impact on the bitcoin mines in Sichuan." He also said, "the flooded mines are very few."
But the photos on the Internet show that the mine seems to have been hit hard. Jiang said, according to its understanding, the network picture is only a small mine, and the small mine has not been built, it was not considered in the construction of the possible flood, the lack of countermeasures. "From the picture, the loss of the mine is 200 to 300." Jiang Zhuo Er thinks that this has nothing to do with the calculation of special currency.
What is the specific situation of the mine encountered heavy rain? In this regard, the daily economic news (micro signal: nbdnews) recently failed to contact the parties for comment.
But at present, according to the local meteorological department forecast, there will be heavy rainfall in Sichuan in the next few days. Is this possible to affect the operation of the bitcoin field?
Jiang Zhuo Er said that heavy rainfall in summer is "common" for experienced large mines, and will not affect its normal operation. At present, he knows all the operations of large mines in Sichuan are normal.
"If the impact of continuous heavy rainfall on mining activities is to be said, it may be that some small hydropower stations will be forced to shut down because of the flood, which leads to some mine free work." Yanchel said that this situation has little impact on the power of the whole network.
The main factor that affects the force is the price of the coin
The Sichuan floods are considered to affect the global bitcoin power. One case is that the hash chart slipped from June 24th and reached the lowest value of nearly a month in June 27th, which seems to coincide with the time of the Sichuan flood.
Jiang Zhuo believes that there is misunderstanding outside. He said that the Hashi rate chart does not fully represent the change of the whole network calculation force. "The Hashi rate table is only the guess value of the calculation of the force, at least 7 days or even a month's mean value will have some reference significance to the evaluation of the calculation force." The change of hash rate on the one or two day does not indicate the change of force.
"No one can see how many hash computing rates there are globally, and the hash rates we see are derived from the excavated blocks." Jiang Zhuo made a metaphor, you see 50 sides, but you do not know how many coins you throw, the hash rate may be caused by the mining activity, and can not directly represent the power of calculation.
Leo Weese, chairman of the Hongkong bitcoin Association, shares similar views. Although some of the published pictures seem to show that the hash rate dropped by 30%, "actually these charts are just guesses, only based on the number of blocks found in one day," he said.
Even, Eric Meltzer, who was reprinted on the social network, also said in a comment, "I don't think the downtrend of the hash chart is affected by the floods in Sichuan, although the photos look terrible."
So, what causes the decline of computing power? Yanchel told the daily economic news (nbdnews), "the main impact of the global bitcoin power is the drop in the currency price and the rise of the power, the miner will turn off the mine when the miner's income is not paid enough to pay the electricity." That is to say, the main influence is coming from the market at present.
Bitcoin prices have been plunging sharply this year after a surge of 1800% last year. According to OKCoin data, bitcoin prices fell to below $6000 in June 28th and fell to a minimum of $5848.26. In January, the highest price of bitcoin was $17 thousand and 100, which has dropped by 65.87% compared with the beginning of the year.
China has a near monopoly on the bitcoin mining industry
The impact of the Sichuan floods on global bitcoin calculation seems to be worrying, but insiders expressed deeper concerns.
Some analysts told the daily economic news (nbdnews) that if any major hit in the Sichuan bitcoin pool would affect the global hash rate. It further suggests that Chinese miners still dominate the encrypt currency, and the Chinese bitcoin mining industry has a "key person risk" for the whole bitcoin industry (that is, the risk of losing a key figure to destroy the collective).
At present, China almost monopolizes the bitcoin mining industry. According to the ARI advisory report, the global bitcoin mining machine manufacturing market is dominated by three major manufacturers, including bit continent, Jialan and billions of nations, and all three big producers are Chinese enterprises. In 2017, the total total sales revenue and sale force of three were 90% of the world.
A bitcoin Industry Research Report of University of Cambridge in April 2017 showed that 58% of the world's bitcoin miners were located in China, while the second ranked US accounted for only 16%.
Mining is popular in China, a large part of which is the huge demand for electricity in the industry, while domestic electricity prices are lower than those in some countries.
There is a view that there is no more leaps in the iteration of the chip. "The competition is no longer the ability to compare a single chip, but how many chips can be put into the field and deal with the problem of heat dissipation and power supply." The industry even circulated such a saying, "power decides power, and power determines purse."
According to a report by Morgan Stanley in May, high energy demand is also a challenge to the bitcoin industry. The report mentioned that the POW (Proof of Work, task proof), used to guarantee the bitcoin transaction, has a huge demand for electricity.
Affected by some of these factors, domestic policies have been tightened for bitcoin mining. According to the relevant reports, in January this year, mutual gold regulation to various underground documents, required to take the comprehensive use of electricity prices, land, tax and environmental protection measures, to guide enterprises in the orderly withdrawal of bitcoin mining business, and regularly send reports on progress.
It is reported that large domestic mines have begun to transfer part of their business to countries with low electricity bills, such as Canada and Iceland. For example, the Bitmain, which runs two of China's largest bitcoin mines, has set up branches in Singapore and carried out mining operations in the United States and Canada. In January, Yanchel, the founder of the BTC.Top, also said the company was opening a branch in Canada, because the cost of operating the mining pool in Canada was relatively low and stable.
Some small mines are also flexibly looking for space for survival. The operators of a small miner said to reporters, "it was not in the past, but also from hydropower to thermal power."
Every reporter Xie Zhenyu
Selena Li, an intern reporter
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Heavy rain echoed north and south, affecting many provinces in Sichuan.
Editor in responsibility: Zhang Yu
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