Original title: let the demolition and real estate business for half a month of panic, the state has the latest statement.
Half a month ago, a news of "the approval authority of the CDB project was put on the head office", so that the relocated households and developers were somewhat "panic".
News background: two types of sheds
Monetary settlement is given to the owners of a certain autonomy, the government directly in the form of money to compensate for the demolition of shantytowns residents, and then the residents to the commodity housing market to buy housing.
Physical resettlement is the demolition of houses and houses, the government to build new houses to resettling shantytowns, divided into two categories: original or remote housing resettlement.
In the second stage of the reform of the greenhouse, the monetalized resettlement is rapidly exceeding the physical arrangement and becoming the mainstream resettlement of the greenhouse. On the one hand, it has benefited from the low cost financial support of the central bank, on the other hand, it has a unique advantage. The main advantage is to pull real estate sales and digest inventory. At the same time, moneteted resettlement not only reinvigorated real estate, but also produced huge wealth effect, promoted the development of local economy, and led to the rapid growth of GDP in the three or four line city.
At the same time, "nationwide shed reform stop", "shed change loans across the board", "real estate market major bad" and other interpretations triggered a continuous decline in real estate stocks. In the industry, the real estate sector has fallen by more than 10% since June 25th of this year, compared with 20% this year.
According to the data, as of the closing of July 12th, the total market value of the 139 companies in the A - share market real estate sector has shrunk considerably, of which Vanke's A shrinkage is the largest and the market value is shrinking up to 75 billion 731 million yuan. Dagang shares are the biggest companies with a drop of more than 60% this year.
In this context, in the afternoon of July 12th, the announcement of the announcement by the Ministry of housing construction, which was held by the Ministry of housing, would undoubtedly give some relocated households and real estate agents a pill.
In response to the tightening of funds for the shed reform, the Ministry of housing has emphasized:
It is necessary to adjust the housing reform and resettlement policy in a timely manner, and take more new ways of building houses to be resettled.
Where commodity housing stocks are large, we can continue to promote the monetization of housing reform.
We should further rationally define and grasp the scope and standards of shed reform, do not engage in a broad brush, do not lay down targets at all levels, and do not blindly borrow money to build stalls.
Affected by the above news, the CITIC Real estate index opened 1% higher in the morning of July 13th, narrowing to 0.42% at midday closing.
Start 3 million 630 thousand sets in the first half of the year
In 2018, the "government work report" emphasized that the new three year plan for tackling the problem was launched, and 5 million 800 thousand units were launched this year. In this regard, the Ministry of housing related bureau director said, in the first half of this year, the national shanty towns transformation has started 3 million 630 thousand sets, accounting for 62.5% of the target task.
Ministry of housing also said that in recent years, the implementation of shanty towns in various areas and standards is generally good, but there are still some problems in some areas. If some places expand the coverage of the policy to the general construction of the town, some of the housing demolition and renovation projects brought by road expansion, historical block protection and cultural relic repair are included in the scope of greenhouse modification. Since 2016, some places have changed in the real estate market and the stock of commodity housing has not been much.
To this end, we must urge commodity and housing stock shortage, housing prices rise pressure on the city and county, timely adjustment of housing reform and resettlement policy. In addition, the above leaders stressed the need to further define and grasp the scope and standard of the shed reform. All localities should adhere to the principle of making the best and measure, and effectively evaluate and demonstrate the capacity of financial support, and do not make one size fits all, no layers of indicators and no blind debt shop stall, further rationally define and grasp the standard and scope of the greenhouse reform, and focus on transforming the sheds and the state-owned industrial and mining areas and forest areas in the old urban areas. The shanty area of the reclamation area.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst at the Central Plains real estate research center, told the daily economic news (nbdnews) that the market is more sensitive to the policy of changing the greenhouse, which is one of the most important supporting factors in the market in recent years, especially in the three or four line market. Due to the large amount of housing demand caused by the monetization of resettlement, it is very easy to magnify market tension under the condition of insufficient housing stock.
The responsible person said that next step, all localities should start building new projects as soon as possible, and speed up the construction of renewal projects. At the same time, all localities should set up a fine calculation idea, strictly prohibit illegal expenditure, ensure the timely repayment of the greenhouse loan according to the contract agreement, and strive to realize the overall balance of the greenhouse funds in the area of the city.
Monetization or gradual tightening
It is understood that the early reform of the shed is mainly based on physical resettlement. In 2015, in order to reduce the increasing inventory pressure, the housing market entered the era of inventory elimination, and the rate of monetization resettlement increased gradually. Monetization resettlement stimulated demand for housing, and inventory went fast. The three or four tier urban real estate market was particularly evident.
The data provided by Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center shows that in 2008~2013, the construction of China's shanty town reform started in 2 million sets of ~300 million sets each year, 4 million 700 thousand sets in 2014, 6 million 10 thousand in 2015, 6 million 60 thousand in 2016 and 6 million 90 thousand in 2017. In 2013~2016, the rate of resettlement of monetization reform in the whole country was 7.9%, 9%, 29.9% and 48.5% respectively.
Zhang Dawei confessed that, after the greenhouse was changed to a monetary settlement, the market for house buyers was constantly letting up. In the past 3 years, the real estate market continued to rise, spreading from the first tier cities to the second line, and spreading from the second line cities to most of the three or four line cities. From the perspective of the layout of real estate enterprises, sales of enterprises based on three or four line cities also showed good performance, and the phenomenon of universal rapid turnover of real estate appeared.
Zhang Dawei further pointed out that from the national perspective, the real estate market has basically said goodbye to the stock backlog era, the inventory task has been preliminarily completed, many cities go within 12 months of the period. This means that the housing reform policy needs to be adjusted according to the market situation, and the gradual tightening of monetization has become a clear trend.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think-tank center of the Institute of Yi Ju, also said in an interview with the daily economic news (nbdnews) reporters that the policy ideas, such as sheds back leveraging, will continue, still good for the three or four line cities with large inventory pressure, but the three or four line that is too fast for house prices. Cities, shed loans for special loans will not have much support.
The reporter noticed that in August last year, the "Notification on the declaration of the reform plan for the shanty towns in 2018" was clearly stated that the digestible cycle of the commodity housing in the city and county below 15 months should be controlled to change the proportion of the house to the monetization and resettlement, and to take more new houses. In November last year, the "notice on Further Strengthening the shantytown renovation project and capital management" was made further clear. For the place where the stock of commodity housing is insufficient and the pressure of housing prices is rising, it is still mainly adopted in 2018 to reform the project of new open shed in monetetle, and to develop the bank and the agricultural development bank to change the special loan. No support.
(this article does not constitute investment advice, and accordingly operates, at risk).
Every reporter Shumanman
Editor in responsibility: Zhang Yu
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