Abstract: Although the US and Russia have intensified the trend of deploying military power, it is very difficult for the US and Russia to take direct military confrontation. Confrontation is actually a bargaining chip in diplomatic negotiations, indicating the determination of both sides to intervene in the Syria issue.
The picture is the American "Truman" aircraft carrier. (source: Reuters)
After the withdrawal of the last anti government forces in the eastern Guta area of Damascus, capital of Syria, the situation in Syria has not been alleviated. Recently, Syria "chemical weapons cloud" again. According to The Associated Press, 10, the UN Security Council voted on a draft resolution on the attack of chemical weapons in Syria. Russia voted against it. It is reported that the draft was drafted by the US side, requiring authorization to investigate who is responsible for the Syria chemical weapons attack. This is not the first time the US and Russia have voted against each other in the resolution on Syria.
Syria "chemical weapons cloud" began in 7, the news said that Syria East Guta area of "chemical weapons attacks", the Syria government army targets followed by air strikes. President Trump said Russia and Iran are responsible for it and say chemical weapons are intolerable atrocities, and the US side has a lot of military options to deal with. The US Navy later said that the United States will dispatch the Truman aircraft carrier to the Middle East and Europe on Wednesday (11). In addition, the European Aviation Safety Organization issued an alert to remind the pilots of the eastern Mediterranean region that there may be a missile attack on Syria in the next 72 hours. Russia's permanent representative to the United Nations, Vasily nirja 9, accused the United States and its allies of "implementing a deliberate plan to intensify international tensions" and warned not to try "reckless" Geopolitics in the Middle East. Meanwhile, Russia's air defense missile system has increased its combat readiness level. There are indications that the military confrontation between the US and Russia appears to be imminent.
Nevertheless, most experts do not think that the United States and Russia will direct military conflict. Fang Xiaozhi, deputy director of the center for Foreign Army Research at the University of International Relations, National University of Defense Technology, said that although there is a trend to tighten the deployment of military forces in the US and Russia, it is difficult for us and Russia to have a direct military confrontation. Confrontation is actually a bargaining chip in diplomatic negotiations, indicating the determination of both sides to intervene in the Syria issue. Of course, although the United States is difficult to stand up with Russia's direct military confrontation, the United States has a tradition of solving problems through local war, so it is still possible for the United States to move to Syria. Dong Jian, a military expert, also said that Trump is likely to blackmail points through the threat of force, such as the need to implement the United Nations ceasefire agreement and take the opportunity to keep the opposition on the ground.
However, some experts believe that the possibility of a conflict between the United States and Russia in the Middle East will not be ruled out. Zhao Weiming, a professor at the Shanghai International Studies University and an expert in the Middle East, said that if Trump announced a direct force in Syria, there could be a military conflict between the United States and Russia. Once the US and Russia develop into a military confrontation, not only will Syria be hit hard, but US Russian relations will also be affected.
Since the victory of the war on terror in Syria in late 2017, all sides in the Syrian territory have faced face-to-face confrontation. In March, it was reported that the Syria rebels had reached an agreement with the Syrian authorities to withdraw from the East Guta region, and the conflict between Guta and Syria is expected to end. However, Zhao Weiming pointed out that this does not mean the complete victory of the Syria government forces. In the border between Idlib and Turkish, government forces and anti-government forces are still stalemate, and the United States and Russia, behind them, continue to play games. The game between the United States and Russia on the Syria issue is particularly prominent in the diplomatic sphere. Russia and the United States are fighting on the platform of the United Nations. Because of Russia's objection, the UN Security Council failed to pass the draft resolution on the Syria chemical weapons investigation mechanism drafted by the United States on 10 th. The event is a reflection of the game between the United States and Russia. Zhao Weiming said that the US and Russian diplomatic contend is likely to pave the way for future military action.
Although Trump has not yet decided whether to directly attack the Syrian army, from the current situation, Syria still has a long way to go. Once the United States attacks the Syrian army, whether the US and Russia will develop into direct confrontation, Syria will again be affected by the flames of war. If Trump decides not to use force against Syria, it will be difficult for the United States to withdraw from the Middle East, because US allies in the Middle East will not easily let the United States withdraw. At the same time, the wavering of Trump's attitude will also add variables to the future development of Syria. (overseas network Dai Shangyun)
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