Offline layout wandering baby tree community profit model prospects to be tested

Offline layout wandering baby tree community profit model prospects to be tested

Offline layout wandering baby tree community profit model prospects to be tested

Guo Mengyi

On the evening of June 28th, the baby tree submitted a prospectus to the HKEx. The joint sponsor is Morgan Stanley, Haitong Securities, China Merchants Securities International, the chief financial adviser is UBS (Swiss United Bank Group), and the joint financial adviser is the compound star.

Prospectus shows that baby trees from 2015 to 2017 revenue were 200 million yuan, 509 million yuan and 729 million yuan. The gross interest rates are 54.6%, 53.1% and 63.2%, respectively. The annual losses in the reporting period were 286 million yuan, 934 million yuan and 911 million yuan respectively. The adjusted annual profit was -1.72 billion yuan in 2015, 44 million yuan in 2016 and 138 million yuan in 2017. Bao Baoshu attributed the loss to the fact that the company is still in its early stage of liquidation.

It is worth noting that advertising revenue and e-commerce income account for 96.6% of the total income of the baby tree, and the amount of knowledge paid for the new interest growth point is less, and the online early education is also being developed. In recent years, the early childhood education center, nurseries and picture library have been developing slowly. Many people in the industry in the "China business newspaper" reporter interview that the source of profit and the lack of exploration path is insufficient, is the problem that the baby tree is urgently to be solved. While the development trend of mother infant market is below the line, the slow progress of strategy under the strategy of baby tree line may be related to the development under the line or with the entry of large shareholder Ali.

In this regard, our reporter interviewed the baby tree, but it said that all the contents of the prospectus mainly.

Where do you go under the line?

It is worth noting that, although the baby tree has been under the layout in recent years, but the prospectus for the future fund raising plan or business system and corporate strategy, little mention of the layout of the baby tree line. "China Business Daily" reporter noted that the baby tree layout line seems to be "big thunder, little rain." Today, the online traffic is exhausted and the cost is high, whether the Jingdong, the baby friendly room, the home or honey bud, all the companies aiming at the mother and baby market, are trying to arrange the mother and baby market under the line.

Public information showed that as early as 2008, the baby tree had been exploring the early education institution, but the early education institution at the SOHO in Beijing ended up at the end.

In 2016, the baby tree began to do mother and baby room and nursery. In July last July, baby tree and baby toy enterprise MATTEL announced the second stage of strategic cooperation, the formal establishment of an independent joint venture, and the basic completion of the first round of financing, planning in China to build an early childhood learning and development of the ecosystem, the opening of community chain early Teaching center.

For the above cooperation, the baby tree founder and CEO Wang Huainan introduced, in the joint venture, Fisher, as a MATTEL sub - brand, will be responsible for the development of related courses and activities of the early education center with the baby tree. Bao Baoshu also appointed the core management of the joint venture company to take charge of the operation of the whole early education system.

Earlier this year, baby tree and MATTEL had launched online collaboration. As an extension of the last round of cooperation, the early education center is mainly aimed at 0-5 year old children, striving to connect online and offline, and enhance the interconnection and continuity of learning development. At the same time, the early childhood education centre includes parent child recreation areas, retail and early childhood education. The plan also involves the establishment of day care centres in or near offices, providing early education services and retail services. In addition, at present, the baby tree in Beijing, Shanghai's large communities in Beijing, Shanghai set up a small time picture library of baby trees, providing a new way of interactive and interactive deep reading and online picture books.

But this reporter searched on public comment, Baidu and other websites, but couldn't find any early education center on any line mentioned above. In the official website of baby tree, there is no introduction to any early education center. The only offline activity is cooperation with third party obstetrics and Gynecology hospitals and private hospitals. Among them, the offline activity page of Beijing showed that the latest offline activity was December 20, 2017's "Marie 2017 double 12 full heart feedback 6 major sections united city", and the deadline was not updated at 5 p.m. on July 12th at the press release; and click into the page, the page showed that all the results were mother to child goods and department. Advertising, there is no line of activity information.

"Once the products are offline, companies will advertise online for drainage. Although the baby tree line is also crying out, it has been nothing. This is not normal for a mother and infant insider who does not want to be named.

The online flow is exhausted, and the cost of drainage is rising today. Along with the Alibaba, all the families are in the new retail, online and offline integration of active layout, online opening through the online drainage profit. Although the baby tree announces such dynamics, the actual action seems to have slowed down.

Another unnamed mother and child service enterprise told the reporter that the baby tree was different from the line. Perhaps it was Ali's acquisition that changed the development of the baby tree. "Ali may only want the baby tree to transmit blood to its line, so the baby tree will develop according to the hope of major shareholder Ali."

In June of this year, the baby tree formally announced its capital strategic cooperation with Alibaba group. After the new round of financing, the valuation of the baby tree reached about 14 billion yuan. At the same time, the two sides will carry out large-scale and deep cooperation in various levels, such as e-commerce, C2M (Customer to Maker), advertising marketing, knowledge pay, new retail, online mother and baby scene, and so on.

"I think Ali will intervene in the investment target, but it does not exclude the offline business. Bao Baoshu's shift from line to line should be related to his offline business. Independent analyst Tang Xin points out.

Community discount problem

"The lack of exploration of the profit model is the greater risk faced by the baby tree." An insider told reporters.

The prospectus shows that the new realisation mode of baby tree is unlikely to succeed. The baby tree has developed a variety of relatively new cash realisation models, namely, electricity providers and paid content. The two began to generate revenue in 2015 and 2016 respectively.

Prospectus shows that baby tree revenue composition is divided into advertising, electricity providers (direct selling and platform), knowledge payment three parts, are online community realisation. Among them, a very important part of the income of the baby tree comes from a small number of advertisers. In 2015~2017, the company's top five customers accounted for 33.7%, 21.5% and 25.7% of the total income, which led to increased customer and credit risk and was amplified in a rapidly developing market. Electric business is the second big profit source of the baby tree, but in the industry, there are vertical mother and baby, such as babe's net, honey bud and red child, like baby tree, Tmall, Jingdong, Suning and other comprehensive platforms, and the cross-border e-commerce platform represented by the ocean wharf, which is very competitive.

At present, the new growth point of support for baby trees is knowledge payment. In 2016, after the D round of financing, the two sides launched cooperation in C2M, big health and other fields. The baby tree also borrows the medical health resources under the flag, and opens the online knowledge pay + health service business. The two parties also jointly announce the establishment of a joint venture company, Shanghai Star Chi Kang Technology Co., Ltd., to integrate the resources of the compound star in the global health service field.

Although mobile audio and video have captured the excellent business model of "pay for knowledge" in recent years, a number of knowledge pay products, such as the sub answer, Himalaya, and a batch of knowledge pay products, have been displayed, but some problems have been exposed gradually. The development of the platform is restricted by the resources of guests and lecturers, such as Luo's thinking withdrawal from the audio platform. The sales volume of each product is limited to only a few columns, such as Himalaya's "good talk" and other programs. Moreover, the content team and platform can only save the bottom through the non exclusive content, because the consumer habits of the mobile audio users are not formed, the user permeability is low, the copyright price is high, and the conversion rate of the users is low.

In the third party Research Institute Zhang Yi, founder of AI media market, it seems that the knowledge payment platform does not yet have a strong profitability. "The industry is not big enough, there are many people who use it, but at present there is no large capital flow in the market space and platform, so it is difficult to feed the team." Zhang Yi said.

Knowledge payment is only a very low proportion in the company's business. Therefore, exploring a more diversified and stable cash flow path is an urgent problem for the baby tree. Tang Xin believes that many companies have recently been concentrated on the listed companies, and the pressure on the capital is large. The profit model of the baby tree is also lack of similar successful cases, and it is difficult to obtain higher valuations in the capital market.

In order to further expand the channel of community flow realisation, online early education has also become a new term frequently mentioned by baby trees.

Wang Jian, an Internet analyst, said that the baby tree national community early education operation, the need for good teachers and larger activities, the surrounding early childhood education resources to be supplemented, this is the way to burn money and not to be good. At present, all early education centers are supported by more advanced concepts abroad, with excellent kindergarten teachers and good infrastructure. Even so, China's early education market is still in a state of stagnation. In the market, the proportion of 0~3 year old baby is not more than 20%. The market has not been fully developed. It is difficult to realize the early education baby by relying on the early education center to improve the proportion of early teaching baby.

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