According to the 26 Reuters daily July, the relationship between the United States and Iran is becoming more and more intense. Recently, President Hassan Rouhani of Iran warned the president of the United States not to "play with the lion's tail". "The United States should know that peace with Iran is the basis of all peace, and that the war with Iran is the source of all wars," Rouhani said in the strongest words. Trump responded by sending a full capitalized tweets, saying that Iran should never threaten the United States.
In the last few days, ruhani warned that if Iran's own exports were cut off, it could block oil transportation in the Persian Gulf; the supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei, claimed that Trump's policy was the same as a declaration of war, and the Iran Revolutionary Guard commander Mohamed Ali Jafari threatened. "We will make the enemy understand that everyone can cross the Strait of Hormuz or no one can do that." In response, Bill Urban, a spokesman for the United States central command, responded that the United States Navy "is ready to ensure freedom of navigation and the freedom to trade in any place allowed by international law."
The dramatic escalation of this tension not only means the end of the Iran nuclear agreement, the joint comprehensive action plan (Trump withdrew the plan of action in May), as well as the beginning of the Iraq war and a broader conflict that will lead to an ongoing regional crisis. The shape is pale. Any U.S. effort to block Iran's oil exports would violate U.N. Security Council Resolution 2231 urging the implementation of the Iranian nuclear agreement.
However, despite the growing rhetoric, there are reasonable options to avoid catastrophic conflict, the report said.
One possibility is direct negotiations between the United States and Iran. Trump has said he believes that his hard line will lead Iran to a "greater agreement" with the United States, and at a news conference at the NATO summit in July that Iran "will call me at some time to ask for an agreement, and then we will have an agreement." But Trump needs to understand that his current strategy undermines a diplomatic chance of reconciliation, because Rouhani's statement on "the source of war" shows that the Iran leaders can't accept this humiliation. They will not surrender Trump's threats and pressure and let national pride feel the blow.
Another option is that the joint comprehensive action plan will continue without the participation of the United States. Iran leaders say they are ready to continue to fulfil agreements with other signatories, including China, Russia, France, Germany, the UK and the EU on the condition that the Trump administration does not force these countries to go against the agreement with the United States.
The report commented that, of course, these non-U.S. signatories will not be able to fully compensate Iran financially for the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions. However, one result of the tough line of the Trump administration is the strengthening of national unity within Iran, which may encourage political parties in Iran to put aside their differences and adopt a unified front in the face of foreign threats.
The recent support for the Rouhani administration by the revolutionary guards made the international community see the resistance of the White House in Iran. Major-General Cassim Suleimani, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Holy City Brigade, wrote to Rouhani to praise his tough stance on the United States. Rouhani said, "we are more united than ever before, threatening to bring us together."
Rouhani has made a strong statement that he is willing to use this unity to make major decisions to solve long-term economic problems such as corruption, inflation, unemployment, privatization and smuggling. Iran needs to carry out these structural reforms in order to get rid of the long-term imbalances and the dependence on oil revenues, which makes it easily hurt by the sanctions, and it also needs a comprehensive reform of its banking system to restore the international community's trust in its financial institutions. If these proposals succeed in improving Iran's economic situation, it will make it easier for Iran to remain in the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan.
European leaders may also be willing to make some concessions to Iran in the political and security spheres to compensate for the loss of its benefits. Despite Rouhani's doubts about the European economic stimulus plan to preserve the agreement, Javad Za Leaf, the Iran foreign minister, is continuing to make sure that China, Russia, Germany, France and the British foreign ministers have made commitments on finance, banking and energy.
It is essential that these countries not only continue to maintain the joint comprehensive action plan, but also cooperate with Iran to deal with the regional crises in Syria and Yemen, thus retelling Trump's statement that the United States withdrew from the joint comprehensive action plan and what he called "Iran's destabilizing activities" and "Threatening activities throughout the Middle East" are closely linked.
The report holds that Iran's recent negotiations with the 4 European countries on the Yemen crisis are very positive and constructive. If Russia and China join the diplomatic process, the seven countries can make a peace proposal to the UN Security Council. Such a plan could be based on a ceasefire, humanitarian assistance, national dialogue, free elections and an inclusive government. Resolving the crisis in Yemen will end the most serious humanitarian crisis in the world.
There are also opportunities for action in Syria. Despite the continuation of hostilities, the organization of the Islamic state has gradually declined within the territory of the country, and support from Russia and Iran ensures that President Bashar Assad continues to take power. It is time for Russia and Iran and Turkey to provide the United Nations Security Council with a comprehensive peace plan for Syria, and it is time for Europe and China to support the plan.
Reported that the joint comprehensive action plan represents a diplomatic solution to the crisis. If it ends, it means that hopes for resolving other regional crises through negotiations have been shattered. Europe, China, Russia and Iran all have the responsibility to fight unilateralism, and the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan is the first step.
Through cooperation, these countries can play a decisive role in promoting a peaceful settlement of regional crises, defeating terrorism, and establishing a new model for regional conflict solutions, and may also maintain the Iran nuclear agreement itself. (compiling / Yuan Xinfang)
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