Original title: "zero tariff" in the US and Europe is actually without details? The big chess game behind Trump's "pause"
Source: Beijing daily
President Trump of the United States recently met with the president of the European Commission, Juncker, in a joint statement that promised to work together in the direction of zero tariff, zero non trade barriers and zero subsidy for non auto industry products. The dramatic progress of the U.S. and European "pause" has aroused great concern, but it is not the peak of the Atlantic's allies from trade protection to free trade to observe the Trump administration's decision-making characteristics and the long game history of us and European trade. On the contrary, the Trump administration's negotiation strategy, trading thinking and the "American priority" logic in the field of trade come down in one continuous line.
The common criticism of the joint declaration is "lack of details". Observers have criticised the so-called "armistice agreement" as vague and vague, symbolically expressing "want" to solve the problem on key issues such as steel and aluminum tariffs and liquefied natural gas into Europe. In other words, the meaning of law is weak, and concrete implementation is doubtful. But for Trump, one of the main points of the negotiation is to create an exciting "moment" through pressure and contact, and the details are not important in themselves.
It is predictable that the intentional agreement, which took only three hours, will not be as smooth and optimistic as Trump claimed. In fact, when Juncker returned to Europe, European officials began to clarify that Trump "has opened the European agricultural market for American farmers", and French President Ma kraolon was more directly angry with the joint statement. But these disappointments and discontents will not affect Trump's trade policy orientation and its subversive impact on World Trade rules.
In his previous trade negotiations since Trump came to power, he never gave up his deep-rooted policy stance since 1980s - to bring back the work, industry, market opportunities and trade interests of the United States by grasping the bottom line and shrewd negotiations.
If the Obama period talks between the United States and the European Union on the "cross the Atlantic trade and investment partnership agreement" (TTIP), the relationship between international rules and allies is still stressed. Under the same shape, Trump is anxious to abandon it, and it is the "rule" itself. He will replace rules with absolute interests and replace global considerations with absolute American priority. In his policy thinking, the "cheap" allies of the United States are not trustworthy. Only through clever foreign policy negotiations, including taxes on allied products, will "have a good ally again".
Trump's most desirable "fair trade" is the lowest-ranking trade with the greatest degree of American interest at its core. Compared with the previous U.S. government, the "zero sum experience" in the business world dominates the thinking of the U.S. power core trade policy. Under this thinking, trade policy negotiations and position coordination, no matter how complicated and intrinsically consecretive, will be a destructive action, meaning that as long as the talks have to return to the bilateral, one to one so-called "fair trade" at any cost. This is the same as changing the rule of international economic operation itself.
At the broader level of Global trade, since 1980s, the development of free trade has been clearly visible: at first the developed countries opened the market gate of the developing countries with free trade, and the developed countries were the controllers of international rules and advanced technology. With the strength of developing countries boosting, they in turn hit some of the traditional industries of developed countries, demanding changes in the irrational system of international rules. In the new stage of the further evolution of the world pattern, the developed countries and the developing countries game each other. The former attempts to revise the existing rules so as to continue to dominate the trade games.
Trump appeared in this new stage. His predecessor Obama's partnership in the two sides of the Atlantic and the Asia Pacific region is the representation of this stage. Trump's intruding to the whole overthrow, more direct transmission of the signal to subvert the international rules system. In the world economic and trade process full of crisis, Trump is a convolution of the pulse of globalization of trade. Just for such a "countercurrent", history does not know how long it can hold.
In this roundabout, China is undoubtedly embroiled in it. We can't expect Trump to go back and get away with it, and in fact, Trump, the president of a businessman with "the art of trade", has an extraordinary force of execution. Only by adhering to the "bottom line thinking" and predicting all possible consequences and doing a good job of research and judgment, can we "let the wind and waves rise and sit on the fishing platform steadily".
Editor in responsibility: Yu Pengfei
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