What is the economic situation in the second half? Reading the Political Bureau meeting for 31 days is the key.

What is the economic situation in the second half? Reading the Political Bureau meeting for 31 days is the key.

Original title: [interpretation] what is the economic situation in the second half? The 31 day Political Bureau meeting is the key

The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, which attracted much attention both at home and abroad, was held in July 31st.

The importance of it is not to be said much. According to convention, every year in April, July, October and December, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the central government should "analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work", make new judgments and carry out new deployment.

And this year, it is worth the period of domestic policy turning point and the key period of Sino US economic and trade frictions. Under such a background, how will the Central Committee study and deploy the economy in the second half of the year?

The amount of information is very large, one by one.


There's a lot of change.

Recalling the Political Bureau meeting in April 23rd this year, the judgment was "China's economic cyclical situation improved", and in July 31st, the judgment was "the current economic operation has changed." From the data also see, the first half of the first half of the overall operating data is still "stable", but there is downward pressure, initial accounting, the first half of the GDP year-on-year increase of 6.8%, quarterly growth, the first quarter rose by 6.8%, the two quarter growth of 6.7%.

There is change in the stable, the key is "change". What new changes and characteristics have emerged in the economic environment since the two quarter?

Externally, China and the United States face uncertainty in trade war and foreign demand, such as financial deleveraging, financial rectifying, real estate regulation and cooling of greenhouse to monetization, which have caused certain downside pressure to the economy. These factors constitute the main contradiction of new judgement.

On this basis, what changes will be taken in the order and rhythm of the deployment of economic work?

In this meeting, "maintaining the stability of the economic and social situation" was placed in front of the "supply side reform" and "three major battles", which highlighted the "stability" and was a positive signal. Specifically, in the past, the central government emphasized the "three tough battles" to prevent and defuse risks. And now? Facing some problems in the implementation of environmental protection supervision and financial deleveraging, the author puts forward the idea of "grasping the strength and rhythm", which is to rectify some excessive behaviors in the past.

Specific to the content of the work, this time put forward the "six major deployments", including macroeconomic policies, key tasks of the supply side reform, financial risk and real economy, opening to the outside world, real estate and livelihood security.

Here, first of all, the macro economic policy, the two major tools of macro regulation, "fiscal policy" and "monetary policy", show certain changes, such as fiscal policy from "positive financial policy orientation", and further clear that "fiscal policy should play a greater role in expanding domestic demand and structural adjustment"; monetary policy. From "maintaining the stability and neutrality of monetary policy", it is further defined as "keeping the general gate of money supply and maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity".

From the words "expanding domestic demand" and "reasonably abundant liquidity", we can clearly see that the two major policy adjustments are aimed at hedging the downward pressure on the economy. As early as the July 23rd National Convention, the "positive fiscal policy should be more positive", especially focusing on reducing taxes and lowering fees. This year, the central bank has released a lot of liquidity through 3 directional reductions and various tools. However, this does not mean that the "flood irrigation" road, the Political Bureau meeting is still "good money supply gate" as a constraint, and clearly put forward "resolutely curb price rises".


The Political Bureau Conference conveys a signal of "stability".

Historically, in ironing the fluctuations of the economic cycle, macro-control often appears the phenomenon of "one release, one harvest, one death". In addition to supply side reform and deleveraging pay more attention to "stability", what other points are there?

On the whole, in order to keep the smooth operation of the economy in a reasonable range, in addition to the force of "finance" and "money", the "six stable" directions are put forward: steady employment, stable finance, stable foreign trade, stable foreign investment, steady investment and steady expectation. These six aspects are very important for social and economic development.

First of all, steady employment. The conference put forward "stable employment in a more prominent position". Employment is the foundation of people's livelihood. In the downturn cycle of the economy, employment will be under pressure, and ensuring employment is also an important aspect of economic and social stability.

In the financial sector. The Political Bureau conference proposed that the prevention and solution of financial risks should be combined with the economy of the service entity. The scale of the social financing is the financial support of the financial system to the real economy. However, in the first half of the year, the social finance was 2 trillion less than the same period last year, which was related to the strict financial supervision and the deleveraging policy effect. In the past few years, we have stabilized the "new regulation of information management" and the rhythm of deleveraging, which is the embodiment of stable finance and stable entities.

Before the market is expected to be leveraged will slow, from this meeting, not to slow down, is resolutely leveraged, this is the big direction and the big principle, the adjustment is only the dynamics and rhythm. It is believed that in the face of different market subjects, deleveraging also needs "precision policy", taking care of the complex needs of different market subjects, such as the residents of state-owned enterprises, people and enterprises, rather than one size fits all.

In terms of steady investment. This meeting highlights the important deployment of "supplement board" as an important task in the second half of the year, as the key task of the structural reform of the supply side. In particular, it will increase the supplement board in the field of infrastructure, and "implement the strategy of Rural Revitalization" to hedge the downward pressure of the total demand and transmit positive signals.

In terms of foreign trade and stable investment, we have seen a clear opening signal to the first China International Import fair, such as "the major measures to protect the legitimate rights and interests of foreign invested enterprises in China", "a major way to relax the market access".

In terms of steady expectation, the most important statement of the meeting is "resolutely curb the rise of house prices" and "resolve to solve the real estate market problem". It is still very resolute to guide people to the reasonable expectation of "housing without frying". On the other hand, the conference will continue to say that it will "accelerate the establishment of a long-term and healthy development mechanism for a stable and healthy development of the real estate market".


In the second half of this year, China will usher in 40 years of reform and opening up. Before this important time point, the external environment changed obviously, and the Central Committee made a great judgement in the new situation.

Adverse factors, in turn, force China to accelerate the pace of opening up.

On the one hand, the Political Bureau conference emphasizes "stable foreign trade" and "stable foreign capital" in the "six stable". On the other hand, one of the "six major deployments" in the second half of the year is to emphasize that "promoting reform and opening up, continuing to study and launch a number of major reform measures for effective use" are fully embodied in the decision-making level to the outside world. The attention of the Ministry of the Ministry of the environment and foreign trade.

This high-level meeting, in particular, mentioned the first China International Import fair to be held in Shanghai in November this year. This will be a major move to open the market to the world and promote economic and trade exchanges and cooperation among the countries of the world. In addition, the recent negative list of foreign investment, foreign investors on the strategic investment of listed companies and many other management measures have been introduced, but also to foreign capital blowing warm wind.

In his April Boao forum, Xi said that "the door to China's opening will not be closed, but will only grow larger and larger." Because senior officials understand that the best commemoration of the 40th anniversary of reform and opening-up is the introduction of new and more vigorous reform and opening-up measures. Especially in the Sino US economic and trade frictions, it is particularly important to grasp our pace of reform and opening up.

It is worth mentioning that, in the face of various problems and task deployment, the meeting clearly shows the attitude of "arduous task and arduous task", and put forward the work requirements, that is, "forming a combination of policy, precise implementation, and a solid and meticulous work". Not long ago, the policy debate between the central bank and the officials of the Ministry of Finance has exposed the problem that some policies are difficult to form a joint force, which deserves our attention.

Wen / Pao Ding Niu

Editor / snow mountain small fox

Editor in responsibility: Huo Yuang

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