Original title: a dispute over whether or not to release American pastors and the reemergence of US soil relations (International Perspective)
Tensions between the United States and Turkey have escalated recently, with the focus of controversy on whether Turkey will release the American priest Andrew Brensen. The United States threatened to impose massive sanctions against Turkey if it did not release him. In July 31st, Turkey responded that the threat of sanctions against Turkey was "unacceptable" and "lack of respect", which would cause "unrepairable" damage to the partnership between the two countries. The analysis holds that, despite the disagreements around the 2016 Turkey attempted coup and the Kurdish armed forces, the relations between the two countries will remain deadlocked in a short period of time.
The United States -
Threatening sanctions against Turkey and stopping the delivery of F - 35 fighters
The United States demanded that the release of F and the possible prohibition of the F - 35 fighter planes become the trigger for this round of confrontation between the two countries. In the United States, Christian conservative groups, which form an important part of the American government's ruling foundation, have been pressing the White House over the Brenson incident. It is reported that the release of Mr Brown is the priority issue discussed by the leaders of the two countries during the NATO summit held recently.
U.S. media reported that the U.S. government recently issued a threat that Turkey will be long-term detention of Brunson and be subject to "large-scale sanctions". The threat was made after telephone calls by President Trump and Turkey president Erdogan. U. S. vice president Burns reiterated this position, saying the earth had no evidence to prove that the United States would impose sanctions on Turkey until he was released. If the US sanctions go into action, it will be the first time in the history of the United States to impose economic sanctions on NATO members.
Andrew Brensen, 50, from North Carolina, USA, lived in Turkey as a priest for 23 years before his arrest. In July 2016, an attempted military coup in Turkey attempted to overthrow President El's Dogan. The Turkish side accused Juron, a religious figure living in the United States, and his leadership of the "Juron Movement" as the mastermind behind the scenes, and listed the "Juron Movement" as a terrorist organization. In October 2016, Turkey arrested Brensen on charges of "engaging in anti-government espionage" and "supporting the Kurdish Workers'Party armed forces to commit crimes". Turkey also repeatedly asked the United States to extradite Charles, but all of them were opposed by the United States.
After the attempted coup in Turkey, the relationship between the US and the mainland went down sharply. The United States insisted on providing military support to the Kurdish militants in Syria, while refusing to extradite Juron and other incidents led to continued tensions between Turkey and the United States. In July 18th this year, the Turkey court dismissed the appeal to release him. In July 25th, the court announced that it was released from prison and put under house arrest in the light of his health. US Secretary of state Pompeio said in July 25th that the Turkmenistan government must immediately resolve the case of the case in a transparent and impartial manner.
In July 23rd, the Senate and Senate, through the final version of the 2019 fiscal year's defense authorization act, made it clear that the US Department of defense submitted a report to the United States Congress on American soil relations, and prohibited the risk of Turkey's participation in the F - 35 fighter project and its possible deployment of the Russian S - 400 anti missile system. Deliver the F - 35 fighter to Turkey. It is expected that the bill will be signed by the president of the United States. The US may ban the sale of F - 35 fighters to Turkey, causing Turkey's strong dissatisfaction.
The threat of sanctions is not good for anyone
According to the "Middle East online" website reported on August 1st, in response to the threat from the United States, El said, "no one can dominate Turkey, we will never tolerate anyone's threat to us, the law is applicable to all people, no one can be excepted." El also said that the foreign minister of Turkey, Qia Wushen, will not hold any talks with US Secretary of state Pompeio at the forthcoming meeting of the foreign ministers of East Asia cooperation in Singapore.
The new National Security Council of Turkey held its first meeting in July 31st to reaffirm the determination of Turkey to combat the "Kuron", the Kurdish Labour Party, the Kurdish people's protection force, the "Islamic state" and other organizations. These organizations are terrorist organizations identified by the Turkey government.
At the same time, Turkey's presidential spokesman, Carlin, said: "Turkey is not a country that can be ignored arbitrarily. The threat of sanctions is not good for anyone. Turkey will never give up the principled position."
In the analysis of the Wall Street journal in the United States, in Turkey, the support of the Kurdish armed forces in the United States, which poses a serious threat to Turkey, is the country's biggest security concern, which makes Turkey gradually turn to Russia in diplomatic relations. In spite of the opposition from the United States and other NATO allies, the government of Turkey has delivered a $2 billion 500 million deposit to Russia and is determined to purchase the S - 400 air defense missile system from Russia. The United States has published in the national interest that Russia will probably get confidential information about F - 35. And if the S - 400 deal is successful, Turkey must ensure that F - 35 will not be used to deal with Russia, which means that NATO is in the face of its strategic rivals.
Public opinion -
Deterioration of US soil relations reflects America's strategic dilemma in the Middle East
Bloomberg commented that the time for us soil relations to deteriorate is very sensitive. Turkey is facing the backdrop of accelerated inflation, the enlargement of current account deficit and the lack of investor confidence in the independence of the Turkey central bank. Turkey lira has also become the second worst currency in emerging markets second only to the Argentina peso, which has fallen by more than 20% this year. After the news of self-made news came out, Turkey's Lila short line dropped by 2.3%, and the Lila dollar exchange rate was once again near the lowest in history.
Analysts believe that, with NATO member states, the United States uses the Hussein Jill Leake Air Force Base in southern Turkey to combat the "Islamic state" of extreme organizations in Iraq and Syria. After the withdrawal of the US nuclear agreement, the risk of conflict in the Middle East intensified. Turkey has an irreplaceable role for the United States to maintain its power in the Middle East. Moreover, the deterioration of us Turkish Relations will definitely affect the actual effect of US sanctions against Iran. Turkey had refused to comply with the US government's request to stop importing crude oil from Iran by November 4th.
According to the analysis of the Wall Street journal, the United States and NATO still have great strategic value for Turkey. Therefore, it is impossible for Turkey to completely "turn the face" with the US, but to achieve some balance between the United States and Russia.
Middle East media analysis believes that the United States government is intended to force El to release Brunson, the priest, by putting out the hard words, and that the probability of a real massive sanctions imposed on Turkey is not too large. If the sanctions are put into practice, it may push Turkey into Russia thoroughly, causing a serious impact on the US strategy in the Middle East. The news of Egypt said that the next step by the United States would be a lot of thought for the tit for tat of Turkey, a difficult problem for the American government and a reflection of the US Middle East strategy.
(Washington, Cairo, Cairo, August)
Editor in responsibility: Zhang Yu
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