Original title: Tesla profit or "empty check" how to build a new force to break hands
Cheng Honghe, China Youth Daily.
In 2017, Tesla held the Model 3 delivery ceremony at the American factory in California, attracting many fans to participate. However, in 2018, the Model 3 model, which was once known as "will help Tesla fully realize profit", was not expected to climb up the slope. It is still uncertain when Tesla will make profits after consecutive losses. Visual Chinese mapping
The hanging heart hasn't been put down yet, and CEO Elon Musk, who has just decided to build a factory in China, is likely to be "worried" because of the profit problem.
Recently, the Wall Street journal cited a memorandum from Tesla to a global supply manager, saying, "Tesla asked some suppliers to return the money they paid to help them make profits." The Reuters, the Reuters said, was worried that the memorandum showed that the loss - linked Tesla urgently needed cash to support current operations and multiple long-term projects.
In response to this, the company said it asked no more than 10 suppliers to cut "overall capital spending on long-term projects that began in 2016 but not yet completed" and said that price adjustments would "improve the future cash flow of the Tesla", but would not affect the capacity of its third quarter profit. The incident has once again raised concerns about Tesla's profitability.
15 consecutive years of loss whether Tesla can continue magic?
In fact, since the founding of Silicon Valley in the United States in 2003, Tesla, regarded as the "top of the luxury electric car", has never made a profit for 15 years.
At the beginning of this year, the news of Tesla Model 3 car failed to reach its target and lack of funds and so on. Data showed that Tesla's first quarter revenue of $3 billion 410 million, up 26% from a year earlier, was also the highest quarterly revenue, with a net loss of $785 million, nearly double the 397 million loss last year, the highest quarterly net loss and a net loss of the fifth quarterly earnings.
"This is the last time the Tesla has gone bankrupt." as the company continues to lose, the stock price falls and other factors of fermentation, Tesla will go bankrupt.
There is a view that the inability to control fixed costs, inefficient production operations and the absence of a dealer network will be the "death" of Tesla; but there are also opponents that once Model 3 breaks through capacity bottlenecks, Tesla will be expected to solve the "negative cash flow" problem in a short time and return to the development track.
In fact, in order to make profits, Tesla resorted to all means. In June this year, Tesla announced that it had cut 9% of its employees to save the company's cost to make the profit in the electric car market as much as possible, and the size of the layoff was the 15 year in which Tesla was founded.
Mask said that Tesla is not a profit - only auto maker, but Tesla has been working to promote the world's sustainable development and energy green, but Tesla has the ability to make the final profit. The staff in the production department will not be laid off in this layoffs.
"Sales must be higher than cost, and Tesla is similar to general motors, investing about $1 billion a quarter, but Tesla can't make up for the cost with current profits." Bob Lutz, the former vice president of general motors, had predicted that the lack of dealer networks, fixed monthly costs and inefficient production conditions could all be the factors that led to the bankruptcy of the Tesla.
According to the latest news, Tesla achieved the goal of 5000 Model production in 3 weeks in the final phase of the second quarter. Before, the Model 3 production continued to quickly consume Tesla's cash reserves, while the cost of sharing the single vehicle was rising, and the Model 3 capacity was considered to be the "key turning point" for Tesla's turn to profit.
However, a new report from UBS once again gives a "pessimistic judgement". According to the report, Tesla shares will fall sharply in the future because the company will not be profitable until 2019. UBS reiterated the "sell" rating for Tesla's stock, and it is expected that the two quarter earnings per share of the electric car maker would be lower than Wall Street's expectations.
Profitability: how to "break through" the new force of car manufacturing
In fact, it is not the first time that Tesla and musk have suffered such embarrassment. In 2008, musk nearly sold Tesla to Google for financial problems, and his space exploration technology company, Space X, had been repeatedly frustrated and nearly bankrupt. However, musk, known as the Silicon Valley iron man, always seems to have the ability to lead the enterprise back to life.
To a certain extent, for Tesla, who has the Internet thinking and the predominant brand effect, it is early to assert that it is "going bankrupt" only by a temporary financial statement. But it is a recognized fact that the core of business is trading, and the nature of the transaction is profit, cash is the blood of the company, and the cash flow of the business is the only healthy blood of its own. For Tesla, there is no shortcut to achieve profitability.
Some experts believe that the problems faced by the new car manufacturers in China may be the same as Tesla. Compared to the traditional automobile enterprises that have been operating in the industry for many years, the new forces are at an obvious disadvantage in the automotive supply chain, intelligent manufacturing, quality control and so on. As the traditional car enterprises have begun to transform rapidly, the time and space of the new forces in the market are gradually narrowing. How to solve the problem of profit will become another difficult problem in front of the big cars.
In the recent "new era of automotive technology revolution and innovation and development" forum, Lu Qun, the future chairman of the car, used "beef noodle" to compare the car making. "A bowl of beef noodles needs real beef, real noodles, and a long time to stew." Lu Group believes that there is no shortcut to improve the strength of the new car making, and it should be practical. There is no so-called "curve overtaking".
"In the new force of the car, one route is to represent, quickly seize the eye, set up the brand image, the price positioning is very high; the other is represented by the Wei Ma, after the subsidy price has been below 100 thousand yuan, by the price to win the eye, quickly seize the market." Tian Weidong, a senior consultant on new energy in Wilson Mdt InfoTech Ltd, said, "these two different strategies I think all have advantages and disadvantages, and there are opportunities in the future."
In the industry, the new force in 2018 was called "the year of delivery", and the new forces such as azure automobile, small ROC car, Wei Ma automobile, electric and caffeine car have all begun to be delivered, and a new round of product card war has been struck.
According to the "Research Report on the development trend of China's new energy vehicle market" issued by the daily economic news joint Wilson Mdt InfoTech Ltd, China's new energy vehicle sales in the first half of this year are 350 thousand, up 1.2 times compared to the same year. It is expected that by 2020, the retail volume of new energy vehicles in China will break through 1 million 800 thousand. The national passenger car market information meeting is expected that by 2020, the domestic new energy vehicle planning capacity has exceeded 20 million vehicles, the market will be more than the supply of demand.
It is worth noting that in 2020, the new energy market subsidies will also be withdrawn, and new energy vehicles will be connected with the traditional fuel vehicles. According to Tian Weidong's forecast, before 2020, the new energy vehicles did not take advantage of the price. "As the whole new energy car products are relatively small and the cost is very high, the price of new energy vehicles can be more than twice as expensive as fuel vehicles at the beginning."
As the cost of the battery goes down, the price of new energy vehicles will drop rapidly, "it will be 50% higher than the traditional fuel car by 2020," Tian Weidong said. And after 2020, with the advent of three yuan battery technology, the whole price will continue to decline but the trend is slowing down, and in 2025 will usher in a golden development period of the new energy car market.
He suggested that, on the one hand, enterprises should strengthen the technology research and development capability of their own new energy vehicles and gradually break through the technical problems. At the same time, with the progress of the battery technology, the cost of the battery system is reduced, the competitiveness of the products will be further improved, and the price of electric vehicles will be reduced to the extent to which the consumers can accept the price; the other is the other party. Based on the double integral policy, new energy automobile enterprises can consider gaining profits by selling points to luxury automobile brands.
Ouyang Minggao, a member of the technical science department of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that traditional fuel cars can be recycled by the quantity, brand and supply chain, but new energy vehicles "can be difficult and difficult to rely on."
He pointed out that "the great value of new energy vehicles is to be produced in the service behind it, so this gives us a new topic, which is to explore the value of the service from an intelligent point of view."
The vice secretary of the China Auto Industry Association, vice secretary Jianhua, believes that "it is difficult for enterprises to make money for new energy vehicles themselves", and should have a overall strategic layout. The traditional cars, pure electric vehicles and other energy saving models have to be considered. At present, the new energy vehicles are given more electric and intelligent functions. The demand for the products is higher, and the enterprises should develop together to examine the development of the whole new energy vehicle industry from the overall situation.
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