The publication of the party newspaper: the external challenges faced by our country from the law of the rise and fall of the great power


The publication of the party newspaper: the external challenges faced by our country from the law of the rise and fall of the great power

Original title: heavy! Journal of people's Daily: the external challenges facing China from the perspective of the rise and fall of a powerful country

At present, Sino-US economic and trade frictions have caused widespread concern at home and abroad, and there have been some doubts, panic, and even some people exclaim that "the wolf has come". In this case, we need to broaden our historical horizons, to "open our eyes to the world" at a higher level, to sum up the experience and lessons of the rise and fall of the world's powerful countries, to recognize the historical position of our country, to face up to various external challenges, and to work together to do our own thing well.

First, emerging countries have undergone a critical stage in the development process.

With the great discovery of geography and the opening of new shipping routes in the 15th century, the continents have become increasingly integrated, and human history has entered the true sense of world history. In the past 500 years, some countries have risen, and you have sung me. Among them, the Netherlands, Britain and the United States successively dominated the world, France, Germany, Japan, the Soviet Union and other countries, have more than once launched an impact on higher goals, but ultimately failed. In the meantime, herds of stags were competing one after another; the wind and clouds were sneaky and shocked step by step, showing a succession of ups and downs in the history of the scroll.

It took about half a century for the Netherlands to become a world power from its complete independence in 1609 to the middle of the 17th century. Britain developed rapidly after the bourgeois revolution, and it took more than 100 years to defeat its old rival Holland in 1784.

After the First Industrial Revolution, the rise of great powers was accelerated obviously by the promotion of scientific and technological progress and industrialized production. From the end of the civil war in 1865 to the first industrial output in 1894, the United States took about 30 years. It took France 20 years since the Great Revolution broke out in 1789 to defeat its main opponent on the European continent and become a powerful country in Europe in 1810. It took 42 years for Germany to become the world's second largest economy for the first time from its reunification in 1871 to 1913, and in 1938 it again entered the ranks of world powers, ranking second in the world in terms of major industrial indicators, taking 20 years. It took less than 40 years for Japan to implement the Meiji Restoration in 1868 and defeat Russia in 1905 to become a world power. After World War II, Japan became the world's second largest economy after more than 30 years. From the October Revolution in 1917 to the outbreak of the Soviet-German War in 1941, it took less than 30 years for the Soviet Union to become one of the world's great powers; it took another 30 years for the Soviet Union to rebuild after the war, and by the mid-1970s it became a superpower against the United States.

In the process of being big and strong, the emerging countries of the world have gone through a critical stage. This special historical stage, which will not be strong, generally lasts for about 10 years. During this period, the risks and challenges faced by the countries concerned are significantly greater than before, and it has a bearing on the success or failure of the ups and downs. In this regard, Britain and the United States are typical examples of success. France, Germany, Japan and the Soviet Union provide historical lessons.

Britain defeated France as a European power in 1763, proudly calling itself the "Sunset Empire" for the first time, and there was a crucial stage before it completely replaced the Netherlands in the world in 1784. During this period, through the Industrial Revolution, Britain created "more productive forces than ever created in the past", accelerated the transformation to an industrial society and became the first "factory of the world", laying a solid foundation for Britain to enter its heyday.

After the Civil War, the United States took active measures to ease the contradictions between the North and the South and to achieve national reconstruction. By 1894, the United States had become the world's largest economy and entered a critical stage. Although the United States occupies the first place in the world in terms of economic volume, its comprehensive strength is not as good as that of the United Kingdom. In particular, domestic problems in the United States are growing, monopolization intensifies, corruption is rampant and social contradictions are acute. After Theodore Roosevelt took office as President of the United States, he vigorously launched a social progressive movement with anti-monopoly as the main content, introduced a series of reform measures, won the reputation of "Trust Blaster" and paved the way for the United States to win the world.

Napoleon established the first empire of France in 1804, marking a critical stage for France. But such a great man, who Hegel called "the soul of the world on horseback" and "the existence of the god", made a series of strategic mistakes. Especially in 1812, he launched the war against Russia, attacked the Russian army and returned home. Finally, he defeated Waterloo in 1815, which deprived France of the opportunity to attack the world power. Similar cases in Germany and Japan have been staged again and again.

The lessons of the Soviet Union were even more painful. After its rapid rise as a superpower, Soviet leaders made a series of strategic mistakes, especially on the wrong path of military hegemony and confrontation. In 1979, Afghanistan was invaded, plunged into the quagmire of 10 years of war, and eventually the "Imperial Cemetery" dug its own grave. Two years after the withdrawal of troops, the country was declared disintegrated.

Thirty years Hedong, thirty years Hexi. Looking back on the rise and fall of great powers, it is a common phenomenon for some countries to achieve leapfrog development in about 30 years. At this time, an important historical node has been reached, and the next 10 years or so is the critical stage of its rise and fall. Some of the successes, some of them unsuccessful, are also a common phenomenon. In the meantime, if the development strategy is chosen correctly, the strength will be strengthened day by day and eventually become a world power, as is the case with the Netherlands, Britain and the United States; if the choice is not correct and there is a strategic error, the country will rapidly decline, thus losing the historical opportunity for further development, as is the case with France, Germany, Japan and the Soviet Union.

Two, being suppressed is the "canon" that the emerging countries can not get around.

At the critical stage of the rise of the emerging countries, they often collide with the defending countries and are subjected to intentional repression. This is the inevitable "growing trouble" and the inevitable "barrier" in the development process.

In the course of its rise, Britain was under pressure from Spain and Holland. After the great geographical discovery, it became Spain that became the sea supremacy. In the late 16th century, Britain stimulated national vitality through religious reform, actively carried out overseas expansion, and conflicts of interest with Spain. In 1588, Spain sent an "invincible fleet" to storm the door, hoping to rely on powerful naval forces to strangle Britain in the cradle. The British Navy defeated Spain by a weak victory, and for the first time appeared on the world stage as a European power. Since then, the two countries have fought repeatedly for the maritime dominance. Holland took the opportunity to become a sea supremacy and monopolized half of Global trade. In 1651, Britain passed the Maritime Ordinance, stipulating that goods entering Britain must be transported by British merchant ships or merchant ships of the origin of the goods. The following year, the Netherlands launched the first Anglo-Dutch war in which Britain was hanged. Britain was in the middle of the bourgeois revolution and was defeated by Holland's new bourgeoisie. Over the past 100 years, the Netherlands and Britain fought three more wars, and it was not until the fourth Anglo-Dutch War in 1780-1784 that Britain completely defeated the Netherlands.

France was also suppressed by the British at the crucial stage of its development. After Britain became the world's hegemony, it was relentless to challenge its status, typically leading an anti-French alliance. In response to France's hegemony over the European continent, the European monarchy formed an anti-French alliance seven times to encircle and suppress it, and ultimately defeated the French army in 1815. The countries participating in the anti-French alliance have changed from time to time, but Britain has always been a major member, other countries to maintain the monarchy, and Britain is to maintain the hegemony.

The United States was also suppressed by the United Kingdom during its rise. As early as during the American Civil War, Britain took the opportunity to attempt to split the United States and even fantasize about re-establishing the United States as its own colony. So it declared verbally neutral and actually supported the South, took over Jinan's arms and built many warships for the South, causing great trouble and loss to the North. After the First World War, the United States first put forward the Fourteen Principles, including the establishment of the League of Nations. The essence is to establish an international organization controlled by the United States under the guise of safeguarding world peace and international cooperation, and try to dominate the world order. In the words of Colonel Haus, then the adviser to the President of the United States, it was to "redraw the map of the world according to our wishes". Britain, of course, was well aware of the United States'plot to unite with the United States, which ultimately forced the United States to abandon its membership in the League of Nations.

After becoming a world power, the United States turned to contain and suppress the threat to its status. In the 80s of last century, the United States suppressed the military power of the Soviet Union and the economic power of Japan. Although the United States regards the former as its greatest enemy and the latter as its closest ally, it is relentless when they threaten its own status.

To the Soviet Union, the United States can do everything it can: export Western values to the Soviet Union vigorously, infiltrate ideology, cultivate the "fifth column", induce the Soviet Union to carry out so-called democratic reforms; engage in arms races, financial and monetary wars with the Soviet Union, restrict Soviet oil and gas exports; instigate the separation of Soviet nationalities. The relationship among the various republics and so on. The Soviet Union, the superpower, suddenly collapsed, although there are domestic factors, but a combination of boxing from the United States is the main external factors. Peter Schwartz, a former CIA employee, wrote: "Talking about the collapse of the Soviet Union without knowing the role of the U.S. secret strategy is like investigating a mysterious sudden death without considering whether there is a particular anomaly or premeditation in the murder or death."

For Japan and the United States, there is no way to open up and show mercy. In the 1980s, when Japanese products flooded the world and the trade surplus with the United States was large, the ambition of big powers expanded rapidly and the US was publicly criticized. In September 1985, the United States convened a meeting of five finance ministers and central bank governors to sign the Plaza Accord, forcing the yen to appreciate. In less than three years, the yen appreciated by 50% against the dollar, severely hitting Japan's exports, and Japan's coping strategies failed, resulting in a sustained economic downturn and a "lost 20 years". The total economic volume of Japan dropped from 60% in the 80s to 25% in 2017.

Thus, it is a common historical phenomenon that emerging countries are suppressed by conservative states at critical stages of development.

Three, China is fully confident and capable of crossing this "ridge".

After more than 30 years of reform and opening up, China will become the second largest economy in the world by 2010. After long-term efforts, socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a new era. Judging from the laws of the development of world powers, China is at a critical stage of climbing over the ridge. Being suppressed at this stage is not a problem, but a problem sooner or later. In fact, since 2010, the external challenges and troubles we face are related to this. At present, the trade war initiated by the United States is the continuation of this challenge. In August 2017, Bannon, then Chief Strategic Analyst of the White House of the United States, declared that there was only about five years left for the United States to defeat China economically; he pointed out that the economic war between the United States and China was a top priority and that all resources must be concentrated to win the battle. "If we lose, five years later, the maximum 10. In the year, we will reach an irreparable critical point. At that time, we will turn over a little bit.


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