Will Syria meet the last battle? Will Turkey Israel fight?

Will Syria meet the last battle? Will Turkey Israel fight?

Original title: will Syria welcome the last battle? Will Turkey Israel join in the war?

Middle East observation

Although Turkey and Israel will not intervene directly, it does not represent a relaxed end to the Syrian civil war and the beginning of political reconstruction in Syria.

With Syrian government troops gathering in the northwestern province of Idlib, the government's final offensive against the main opposition stronghold is also about to start, the Syrian civil war may usher in the final battle.

Concerned countries are more interested in sending troops.

The current Syria rebels are composed of several armed factions. Among them, the largest is the Syrian "moderate opposition", "Syrian Liberal Army", "Islamic State" and "conquering front". Some of these opposition forces have been stationed since the outbreak of the civil war in 2011, and many have been "redeployed" to the Idlib region since 2016 from Aleppo, Holmes and the East Ancient Tower, in accordance with negotiations with government forces.

The Idlib war involves not only the Syrian army and the anti-government forces, but also the relevant countries and regions.

In the Battle of Idlib, Russia will continue to use the air force to help Syrian government forces "open the way". While stressing the risks of "chemical weapons attacks" and "humanitarian catastrophe" in the battle of Idlib, the United States is reluctant to directly send troops to bear the responsibility for the Syrian civil war, and its concern about the situation in Syria is more than just to express its position.

Turkey is particularly concerned about ED ribo. Turkey has been hoping to turn Idlib into its own "buffer zone" in northern Syria, on the one hand to protect the Syrian rebels it supports, and on the other hand to resettle Syrian refugees stranded in Turkey.

In addition, Turkey is most concerned about the Kurdish political and military forces represented by the Democratic Alliance Party in northern Syria. Turkey has always regarded the Democratic Alliance Party and its armed groups as a branch of the Kurdish Workers Party, a terrorist organization in Turkey, in Syria. In Turkey's view, the establishment of a "buffer zone" under the control of the Syrian opposition forces in northern Syria is the most important means of resisting and disintegrating the Democratic Alliance Party. Because of the confrontation between the US-backed Democratic Alliance Party and Turkish-backed Syrian opposition forces across the Euphrates River in northern Syria, Idlib province has become the last major area in which Turkey can exert direct influence.

Despite its own interests in Idlib, it does not mean that Turkey will send troops to intervene in the Syrian army's military operations in Idlib.

On the one hand, the presence of Syrian government troops in Idlib can also satisfy Turkey's concerns about the Kurds, and the stability of the situation in Idlib can provide a sufficient excuse for Turkey to repatriate large numbers of Syrian refugees to Syria; on the other hand, Turkey can still retain troops in northern Syria. The target of the Syrian army is only the Syrian rebels, and the 12 "observatories" set up by Turkey in Idlib under the Astana peace process can still remain. Therefore, Turkey does not have to send troops to stop the large-scale offensive of the Syrian government forces.

If security concerns are met, Israel will not send troops.

Apart from Turkey, Israel is also very concerned about the war of the Iraqi leader. Since then, the rising Shi'ite armed groups in the Syrian Civil War, especially the "Hezbollah" in Lebanon and the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) supporting the Syrian government forces in fighting, have been a major threat to their national security.

On the one hand, Israel demanded that Iranian militants and Shi'ite armed groups be kept away from the Golan Heights and its surrounding areas on the Israeli-Syrian border; on the other hand, Israel demanded that Hezbollah not acquire heavy weapons such as missiles from Iranian and Syrian government forces in Syria.

In order to ensure that their security concerns are respected, the Israeli Air Force has repeatedly crossed into Syria and attacked Shiite targets in Syria. Israel, on the other hand, focuses on Russia's voice on Syria. Russia and Israel not only have good bilateral relations, leaders of both sides visit each other frequently, but also Russia regards Israel as an important window to communicate with the United States.

Therefore, whether the Israeli air force has repeatedly attacked Syrian targets without "head-on collision" with the Russian air force, or Russia's call to "withdraw foreign forces from Syria" to oppress Iran to withdraw from Syria, is actually helping Israel on the Syrian issue. As a result, Israel's security concerns have been met and there is no need to intervene in the Syrian army's military operations to recover Idlib.

After seven years of civil war, the battle of the ED ribe is probably the last battle of the civil war in Syria. Although Turkey and Israel will not intervene directly, it does not represent a relaxed end to the Syrian civil war and the beginning of political reconstruction in Syria.

How to deal with the relations with the Syrian Kurds, how to coordinate the relations with the complicated factions of the Syrian political opposition groups, how to deal with the relations with neighboring countries and regional countries, such as Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan and other countries, will still be the future Syrian government in the post-war political reconstruction may face. Key issues.

Mr. Wang Jin (Research Fellow, Syria Research Center, Northwestern University)

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