Is the rent increase in the first tier cities within reasonable limits?

Is the rent increase in the first tier cities within reasonable limits?

Host: Good afternoon, Sina Weibo and Sina Weibo. Welcome to the "Sina Meetings Living Room" this afternoon. I'm Host Wen Jing. In recent years, the rent of the first tier cities has gone up, especially in Beijing. Under the high rent, some people painfully give up nearly half their salary to renew their rent, some people live in a more narrow space, some people move to the suburbs, and some people choose to start rethinking their lives. What are the reasons for the rapid rise in rent? How can the housing rental market "long-term stability"? We invited Mr. Lou Jianbo, director of the Real Estate Law Research Center of Peking University, to share his views with us. Hello, Mr. Lou.

Lou Jianbo: Hello, host, good afternoon, everyone.

Host: First of all, we are concerned about the recent hot events, that is, the rise in rents in many first-tier cities in Beijing and Shanghai. Perhaps everyone has a different experience. First of all, I am curious to know if you have any specific data on this side, just how much this wave of increase is, an official. What kind of level is the statistical data? Is the increase reasonable?

Lou Jianbo: I think everyone feels the same when the rent goes up. As long as people rent a house, they all feel the same way. I also asked some intermediaries who are engaged in the rental business in Beijing. Generally speaking, such as Xicheng, Haidian and Dongcheng are 500, 1000. But I don't think some statistics are very meaningful, such as how much they've gone up from June to August, the seasonal rise in graduation rates from June to August, and the low rent base in places like suburban and Tongzhou, for example, 53 yuan / square meter / square meter Month, up to 59 yuan / square meter / month, to calculate the proportion of the increase is also very high, but this is not a big impact on everyone, but anyway, I think we all have to admit that there is a real rise in rent during this period.

Host: As you mentioned, do we have any data, such as specific ratio or floating ratio?

Liu Jianbo: Actually, I think the government department should have a data, but we don't know. However, from the intermediary data, some residential areas rose to 35%.

Host: 35%?

Lou Jianbo: Yes.

Host: I understand. Just now you mentioned, for example, the factors. I went through the rental stage when I graduated. Because June is the graduation season, many students will leave the campus in July and August to rent a house. You think that in addition to this driving factor, because a large number of students enter the rental market, there are other driving factors behind. The rise in rent?

Lou Jianbo: If we look at leasing as a market, I think the price is going up. The logical reasoning is that supply is going down and demand is going up. The government has been doing this since last year's blaze in Beijing, for example, to rectify illegal rental housing and crack down on group rents. Of course, this is mainly to protect the safety of residents. There may be a lot less rental housing on the market. But the key is that these months are just when the demand is increasing, that is seasonal, like you just said that students graduate, there are accompanying students, some people come to college may be accompanied by parents, and other like Xicheng, Haidian primary school parents to let children go to school to rent a house.

Host: he may own a house and he needs to rent it.

Lou Jianbo: Yes, that's easy for everyone to realize. Another example is the transformation of shantytowns and old cities in Beijing. It is a period of time from demolition to resettlement. During this period, these people are actually going to the rental market to find a house to live in. There are also restrictions on our purchases, and restrictions on the sale of the merchant's residence, which in fact have made some people who might have solved their housing problems by buying a house, and eventually he has become a rental party in the rental market. So I think it is a result of a combination of factors.

Host: I understand that every time we talk about rising rents, there are some professionals who will mention "Rent Return Rate". I see a data show that by the end of 2017, the average rent return in China's first-tier cities is 1.5%. Can you explain this concept to netizens? What is the level of this data in the world?

Lou Jianbo: Let's talk about normal first. Normal people think that 1:200 and 1:300 are normal.

Moderator: return rate?

Lou Jianbo: almost. For example, 1:300 is about 3.3%. What you said just now is 1.5%, which must be relatively low. But there is one more thing I have to say, from the statistical point of view, can really meet the normal rate of return, the world is 10 to 12 cities, the last place is our country's Hong Kong region, Hong Kong region is 3%, the normal 1:200 to 1:300, he is just 3%. I have to say that the basic algorithm is your rent plus the various monthly expenses you have to pay for the house as a molecule, and the denominator is the cost of the house. Of course, it turns it into the same period, like rent. The mortgage on this house is 20 years, and it multiplies the monthly rent it is now charged by 12 times 20. The denominator below is the total amount of money to be spent on the house, including interest. The really meaningful rate of return, I think, is for a particular house. In countries and regions with relatively single housing properties, you can still calculate the whole, but in our country, because I am engaged in real estate law teaching and scientific research in Peking University, I once took students to statistics, such as how many different kinds of houses are on the market in Beijing, most of the time we There are probably 14 or 15 different types of houses.

Editor in chief: Wu Jinming

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