Investor newspaper reporter Wu Yue
Recently, news about 5G's commercial landing is coming. In June, Xu Zhijun, Huawei's rotating chairman, announced at the Shanghai World Mobile Congress that Huawei would launch a complete set of 5G commercial network solutions based on Independent Networking (NSA) on September 30, 2018 and a 5G commercial system based on Independent Networking (SA) on March 30, 2019. In addition to the timetable for 5G networking products, Huawei will launch a 5G-enabled Kirin chip in 2019 and a 5G-enabled smartphone in June 2019.
In addition, ZTE has recently successfully completed the first phase of China Telecom's 5G test network in Xiong'an and Suzhou. Qualcomm and Datang Mobile have completed the new 5G air interface interoperability test (IODT) according to the third phase of the 5G technology development test issued by IMT-2020 (5G) propulsion group. Ericsson has completed the new 5G air interface interoperability test (IODT) in the Laboratory of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. And Huairou outfield completed the outfield end to end test of 5G independent network NSA architecture.
From the action of these giants, 5G commercial landing has been eager to speak out, so many voices believe that 2019 is likely to usher in the true meaning of the 5G year. Under this kind of anticipation, the recent 5G concept plate's stock price performance in the A share "drops unceasingly" under the environment can be called eye-catching.
So, is the 5G plate expected to become a rare haven in the bitter and bitter rain of A shares? What are the listed companies in the 5G industry chain and what are their investment logic? Which companies really benefit from 5G commercial landing, which companies are purely hot?
The investor newspaper discusses the listed companies of A share 5G board, with a view to provide reference for investors.
5G or changing the communications industry again
The telecommunications industry is probably the most frequent area of "dynastic change" in the last 20 years. The dominant brands such as Motorola and Nokia, which were just beginning to emerge from mobile phones, are now hard to find. With the advent of the 3G era, smartphone brands such as Apple, Samsung and so on are booming globally; in the domestic market, China Cool Union (ZTE, Huawei, Cool School, Lenovo), which relies on operators to sell at low prices, also occupies a certain share.
Since the 4G era, domestic mobile phone manufacturers have broken through from the early low-price strategy. Huawei, VIVO, OPPO and other domestic mobile phones have become popular in the domestic market. Huawei is even more prominent. In the past, it has been monopolized by foreign brands in the high-end smartphone market.
With the widespread application of 4G network, the rise of new business mode is coming. Because 4G networks are faster and more stable than 3G, there are more demanding business models for mobile networks, such as live broadcasting, short video, mobile payment, mobile life services, shared economy, and so on. There are also more "heavy" mobile platform games such as King Glory, Yin and Yang division, chicken eating, etc., which have sprung up, not to mention. With the help of faster networks, mobile Internet users show explosive growth. According to Bida, the number of mobile Internet users in 2017 has reached 750 million, and the number of mobile Internet users is expected to reach 780 million in 2018. On this basis, various mobile applications and mobile social platform business models emerge one after another.
Then, what impact will the arrival of 5G bring to us?
5G (5th-generation) is the abbreviation of the 5th generation mobile communication technology. However, unlike 4G, 3G and 2G, 5G is not an independent and brand-new wireless access technology. It is a post-solution to the evolution of existing wireless access technologies (including 2G, 3G, 4G and WiFi) and some additional complementary wireless access technologies. The general term of the plan.
5G means faster network, lower latency and more connections. At the same time, because of the introduction of stronger encryption algorithm, the security mechanism becomes stronger.
From the application point of view, 5G lays the foundation for the interconnection of all things. In the future, there may be sensors for every object, and each 5G terminal may become a connecting point to realize data interaction. Simply put, 4G is the basis for the prosperity of the mobile Internet, and 5G may be the basis for the future development of the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, smart cities and other applications. New technological revolutions such as artificial intelligence, new intelligent hardware platforms such as VR / AR, new travel technologies such as unmanned driving, new scenes such as the interconnection of all things subversive applications, in the development of 5G to a relatively mature stage, it is possible to flourish.
From the perspective of market prospects, with the large-scale spread of 5G applications, the next three to five years will bring trillions of business opportunities to the industrial chain. According to the "5G Economic and Social Impact White Paper" of the China Telecom Institute, the direct and indirect output driven by 5G will reach 6.3 trillion yuan and 10.6 trillion yuan respectively by 2030.
In terms of direct output, according to the official commercial calculation of 5G in 2020, it is estimated that the direct output of 484 billion yuan will be driven in that year. In 2025 and 2030, it will increase to 3.3 trillion yuan and 6.3 trillion yuan, respectively. The annual compound growth rate of 10 years will be 29%.
In terms of indirect output, in 2020, 2025 and 2030, 5G will drive 1.2 trillion yuan, 6.3 trillion yuan and 10.6 trillion yuan respectively, with an average compound annual growth rate of 24%.
5G industry chain holds trillions of business opportunities
5G is the catalyst to push mobile technology into the general field, and it is also the opportunity to reshape the top-down competition pattern in the field of communications. Therefore, 5G has become a battleground for the global communications industry.
Not long ago, at the 2018 World Telecom Fair in Durban, South Africa, Vice Minister of Industry and Information Technology Chen Zhaoxiong said that China attaches great importance to the development of 5G, supports enterprises and industrial organizations to conduct in-depth international exchanges and cooperation, actively participates in the formulation of global 5G standards, carries out research and development experiments, and studies and formulates spectrum planning. Important progress has been made in the application of 5G fusion. The global 5G development has entered a critical period of commercial deployment. It is urgent for the global industry to work together to promote the efficient utilization of 5G spectrum resources, the coordinated development of industry, and the popularization and application of technology, so that users can share the 5G development results as soon as possible.
At present, China is conducting the final stage of testing before 5G commercial use. China's telecommunications enterprises have taken the lead in indoor and outdoor 5G performance testing. The single terminal speed reaches 3GB per second, and the transmission rate of the whole residential area exceeds 10GB per second. It can transmit 16 channels of high-definition video at the same time while the vehicle is running at high speed.
In terms of terminals, Chinese mobile phone manufacturers are also in the forefront of the world. On August 31st, Millet Mobile successfully opened 5G signaling and data link connection for the first time, and described it as a milestone in the development of 5G. Millet expects to launch 5G mobile phone in 2019.
OPPO completes 5G signaling and data link connectivity based on commercially available mobile phones, laying a solid foundation for the release of commercially available 5G products in 2019. Based on the latest flagship vivo NEX, vivo has initially completed the development of commercially available 5G mobile phone software and hardware. The version has reached a commercial level in size and appearance, and is currently testing the compatibility of 5G technology with 4G.
Unlike the firms, which mostly develop 5G phones based on Qualcomm chips, Huawei is working on its own 5G chips, with plans to launch 5G-enabled chips in 2019 and 5G-enabled smartphones in 2019.
According to the various stages of 5G network from R&D to application, the current industrial chain mainly includes several major sectors: planning period (network planning and construction enterprises); main construction period (antenna and tower, base station radio frequency components, main equipment and optical transmission, optical devices, optical fiber cable, etc.); application period (network optimization operation and maintenance, chip and terminal configuration). Set, operator, etc.)
With 5G commercial landing in sight, many enterprises in the industrial chain are speeding up. In the 4G era, the wave of hardware construction, such as "broadband China", has spawned a very large optical communication market (optical fiber cables, optical modules, optical devices). The investment scale of 5G and the subdivisions involved in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are more complex and will inevitably lead to greater market prospects. Shen Wanhongyuan reports that China's three largest operators 5G total investment is expected to exceed 1.3 trillion yuan, more than 60% growth over the 4G era. This also brings huge business opportunities to 5G network planning and design and various software and hardware facilities suppliers, who can obtain these large orders, who will have a relatively clear performance expectations for at least two to three years in the future.
A shares 5G plate opportunities and risks coexist
From the deduction of the 5G industrial chain, the investment logic of the 5G plate basically follows the development process of the industrial chain, paying attention to the planning and main construction enterprises in the early stage, and paying more attention to the application enterprises in the later stage. At present, 5G is in the stage of technical standard setting, off site test and product pre research. From 2019 to 2020, 5G industrialization will be promoted rapidly. With the completion of the planning period and the main construction entering a critical period, a large number of investment will pour in, which will also bring relatively clear investment opportunities to the secondary market.
It is also based on this background, in recent years, the A-share market 5G plate shows signs of capital gradually entering, compared with the same period of several major indices, performance is eye-catching.
So, which companies in this sector really benefit from the shaping of the 5G industry chain? This may provide some ideas for investors to find the next stage of investment targets.
Huatai Securities researcher Chen Xinwei issued a research paper pointed out that the current 5G preparations are proceeding in an orderly manner, 5G catalytic events are intensive, is expected to bring a phased market. We should focus on beacon communications, ZTE and Guang sun technology. We should pay attention to Bo technology and Tongyu communications.
Among them, Beacon Communications and ZTE Communications are the main equipment and optical transmission suppliers involved in the 5G main construction period, while Optical Technology and Tongyu Communications are optical component suppliers. During the outbreak of 5G infrastructure construction, these companies are expected to benefit from the substantial increase in investment in related construction.
In particular, ZTE can be said to be the A stock 5G plate recognized as the leader. Haitong Securities believes that in the first half of this year, ZTE was greatly affected by Sino-US trade frictions, reported a substantial loss in results, but the company's operation has gradually recovered, and the previous high investment in 5G related technology research and development is expected to usher in a turning point of 5G demand acceleration.
In addition, the company plans to launch 5G commercial all-netcom chips in 2019, and is now accelerating technology development and business layout in the 5G field. However, although both Ziguang Zhanrui and Ziguang shares belong to Ziguang Group, there is no equity relationship between Ziguang Zhanrui and Ziguang shares. Ziguang's 5G-related business is mainly embodied in the company's full intellectual property rights, with SDN/NFV technology as the core of the software and hardware, the technology company is currently the first in the 5G mobile core network applications, the realization of vIMS/vEPC and other NFV and pilot, the three operators are using this technology to complete three-tier decoupling, in order to remove the transmission Unified "chimney" structure to achieve "horizontal integration", the future 5G base station will also introduce SDN / NFV technology.
Many companies are also releasing information related to 5G. Dafu Technology said that the company has made full preparations for miniaturized filters, dielectric filters, multi-channel intermodulation filters, new band filters, array antennas and other aspects, and is fully capable of dealing with the 5G era of various bands and formats of network construction. Guorui Technologies said that the company has already carried out the research and development of 5G products, and is actively striving to become the core supplier of 5G products for major domestic mobile operators.
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