The words of the Chinese negotiator are meaningful.


The words of the Chinese negotiator are meaningful.

Original title: the trade war has escalated again. The Chinese negotiator's words are meaningful.

See the fire.

The trade war between the world's two largest economies has escalated this week.

At 12:01 p.m. Beijing time on September 24, the United States began imposing a 10% tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. The new tariff list covers thousands of products, including food seasonings, baseball gloves, network routers and industrial machinery parts.

As a counterexample, China imposed a 5% to 10% tariff on US $60 billion merchandise at the same time.

It is noteworthy that before the announcement of a new round of tariff measures by the United States, the United States had invited Chinese negotiators to Washington for a new round of Sino-US economic and trade negotiations. Trump quickly pushed ahead with the latest tariffs, which seemed to put a brake on both sides' negotiating plans.

Wang Yiwen, Vice Minister of Commerce and Deputy Representative of International Trade Negotiation, pointed out at a press conference held on the 25th that the resumption of high-level economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States depends entirely on the will of the United States.

He said that China has an open door to resolving economic and trade disputes through consultation and negotiation, but in order to achieve effective negotiations, first of all, we must treat each other equally and respect each other; second, we must have sincerity in negotiations and negotiations and abide by our promises.

Who is more painful to escalate trade wars?

The New York Times pointed out that within the White House, there was still a fierce struggle between those who wanted to reach an agreement with Beijing and those who were determined to continue pressing for more radical changes in their trade practices. At present, hardliners are supported by Trump.

Some analysts believe that Washington's view seems to be that tariffs and more tariff threats will soften Chinese attitudes and make it easier for them to accept negotiations.

However, the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) quoted experts as saying that the United States may underestimate the resilience of China's economy, believing that the pain of the trade war will soon force China to yield at the negotiating table. But Chinese companies may shift exports to other countries or develop domestic markets, or shift some production to the United States.

The Financial Times also pointed out that with the help of the Chinese government, Chinese companies should be able to withstand short-term pain. The Chinese government has said it will take measures to support private enterprises and help them tide over difficulties.

Lian Weiliang, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at a news conference held on the 25th that the United States would impose further tariffs on $200 billion worth of goods, which would have a direct and indirect impact on China's economy. However, in a comprehensive way, although the impact is inevitable, the risks are generally controllable.

Lian pointed out that China's economy is fully capable of hedging the impact by expanding domestic demand and promoting high-quality development. "We say that the risks are generally controllable, and there are at least three aspects of support: the overall resilience of the Chinese economy, the potential for domestic demand, and the growing competitiveness of the market players."

By contrast, Trump's aggressive behavior has attracted a lot of criticism in the United States.

The New York Times pointed out that U.S. businesses had warned that tariffs could hurt their profits, force them to lay off workers and, in some cases, destroy companies, saying they would do more harm to the U.S. than the U.S. government knows.

A study released this month by the National Association of Chemical Distributors in the United States predicts that 28,000 chemical distributors and suppliers will be cut in jobs as the $200 billion tariff round pushes up prices.

It is noteworthy that the U.S. tariffs have been aimed at minimizing the impact on U.S. consumers, but the new round of tariffs has seen a significant increase in the range of consumer goods, including car tires, furniture, wood products, pet food, baseball gloves and so on.

"These tariffs will be paid by wage-earning families that drive our economy," said Jonathan Gold, a spokesman for an industry group set up to fight tariffs. "Tariffs are taxes. It's as simple as that." By choosing to unilaterally raise taxes on Americans, the cost of running farms, factories or businesses will increase. In many cases, these costs will be passed on to American families. "

Matthew Shay, president of the National Retail Federation, said: "As thousands of businesses testify and explain to the Trump administration, tariffs are a tax on American households." He said the Trump administration ignored the cries of the affected people, which was "disappointing".

Jeff Gennette, chief executive of Macy's, said the Trump administration's decision was "not what we wanted... We will see how consumers will vote about this.

What are the counter measures in China?

So far, the United States has imposed tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods, equivalent to half of China's total exports to the United States. Although China has not imposed tariffs on American goods of the same value this time, this does not mean that China has no weight.

Lou Jiwei, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the CPPCC National Committee and former Minister of Finance, put forward proposals against a round of U.S. tariff measures at the "China Development Forum 2018 Symposium".

Lou Jiwei pointed out that China's counterattack strategy could also choose to restrict U.S. exports of parts, intermediate materials and equipment that are heavily dependent on China in the U.S. manufacturing supply chain. At the same time, these parts, intermediate materials and equipment can effectively supply the Chinese manufacturing and the Chinese market.

For example, in the U.S. tax bill, those who are actively excluded, or after a strong appeal by U.S. companies have to exclude products. These export-restricted products are not of high value-added in China, but are the basis of high value-added manufacturing in the United States.

"Of course, China is not excluded from low value-added products, but measures are taken to produce high-value products from the global value chain of China's portfolio," said Lou Jiwei. In other words, the US can build an alternative supply chain in third countries, but that will take time. What is the pain of 3 to 5 years? This is enough to span a political cycle. "

According to CNN, thousands of companies have asked the U.S. government to exclude certain products from the tariff list, claiming they cannot find suppliers outside China to supply the products they need.

"It's time for negotiations - not just for tariffs," the National Manufacturers Association said.

Although the United States has once again provoked trade disputes, Trump still leaves room for a negotiated end to the trade war between China and the United States. Trump said the United States may reach an agreement with China at some point, and the United States has been open to negotiations.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Ross told CNBC that whether or when the two sides will meet depends on China. The ultimate goal is not to set tariffs, but to let China "solve the fundamental problem".

But China has repeatedly said that only dialogue and consultation on the basis of equality, good faith and mutual respect is the only correct way to solve the Sino-US economic and trade problems.

"Now that the United States has taken such large-scale trade restrictions and put knives around the necks of others, how can the negotiations proceed? It is not an equal negotiation and consultation. " Wang Shouwen said.

In addition, Wang pointed out that four rounds of high-level consultations between China and the United States have been held, and many consensus has been reached in these consultations. The two sides even issued a joint statement. However, the United States abandoned these consensus and adopted trade restrictions, which made the negotiations impossible to continue.

Wang said that as long as there is sincerity, as long as equal treatment in the negotiations, to abide by their promises, negotiations can find a way out.

In fact, it has always been the usual trick of the Trump administration to talk at the same time.

In early June, when U.S. Commerce Secretary Ross traveled to Beijing to discuss economic and trade issues with China, the U.S. announced at the end of May that it would impose tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods.

Geng Shuang, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said that the US side was shouting contact dialogue, waving sanctions sticks, issuing invitations for consultations and exerting extreme pressure. "This pattern seems to have become a routine of the US. For the US side, this is a way for China to see clearly and take it easy.

Editor in chief: Gui Qiang


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