Electric vehicle burn mode failure growth rate is far below expectations.


Electric vehicle burn mode failure growth rate is far below expectations.

Original title: electric vehicle burn mode failure

Author: Yuan Shan (Financial commentator)

On the evening of October 7th, Hengda's health bulletin made Jia Yueting once again become a "lost heart Han". Evergrande Health accused Jia Yueting of unilaterally demanding a tear-up of the agreement. He spent $800 million on Faraday's future in half a year and arbitrated the HKSE in the absence of a new $700 million injection. In response, Faraday issued a statement in the afternoon of Oct. 8 that the only reason it tried to get rid of Evergrande was that Evergrande failed to honour its commitments and to pay its prior consent. Evergrande should not detain money while preventing FF from accepting other investments.

Regarding Jia Yueting and Hengda's "regretful marriage", some analysts believe that the origin lies in the original paper betting agreement. According to the agreement, if FF fails to meet its production target by the end of 2018, or if Evergrande considers Jia Yueting incapable of performing its duties, Jia Yueting's voting rights will be transferred to Evergrande, thereby losing control of the company.

Whether it is true or not is not known. But Hengda spent $800 million in just a few months, again raising doubts that Jia Yueting's "electric car dream" is a bottomless pit. Frankly speaking, the collapse of the Lexus Empire has a lot to do with Jia Yueting's endless investment in listed companies into other areas led by automobiles. The rupture of the relationship between Jia Yueting and Sun Hongbin is precisely due to the enormous historical debts of Lexingxiang, which has resulted in Sun Hongbin's tens of billions of dollars in investment and is difficult to stop bleeding.

It's hard to imagine how fast Jia Yueting is burning money on electric cars, but that's not a problem for Faraday's future family. Recently, an article entitled "Bring you a full understanding of the real Ulaeva ES8" refers to Ulaeva as a semi-finished product. As a result, the price of Wei Lai automobile has been declining and has fallen below the issue price many times.

From Faraday's future to Wei Lai automobile, now faces multiple challenges. The first is technological challenges. From battery energy system, endurance to safety, there are still many technical problems that have not yet been overcome. The biggest characteristic of technology research and development is that it can not be done quickly. It requires hundreds of excellent researchers to continue to study, and it is difficult to give a clear timetable for success.

Even if technology problems are broken, the cycle of electric vehicles entering real mass production is still very long. At present, the mass production concept of the major electric vehicle companies is actually a small batch trial production. After the vehicle is on the road, it is necessary to test and error in the complex operation scenarios, so as to find the problems of the vehicle itself and improve it in the later development and manufacturing. From the current situation, whether it is the future of Faraday or UFO, even the first step of small batch trial production has not been fully taken. In theory, if the perfect car can not enter mass production, it is impossible to complete the transformation from the laboratory to the street, let alone form a scale effect, to achieve market value.

Therefore, the cruel fact facing the capital market is that the growth rate of electric vehicles is far below expectations, on the basis of the huge investment in the early days, electric vehicle companies do not know how much more to burn in order to fulfill their commitments.

This may lead to a serious decline in market confidence. Even Tesla, regarded as a pioneer in the electric car market, had lost more than $10 billion in value a while ago, because Musk couldn't stand shareholders'profit demands and chose to privatize, triggering violent market turmoil. The problem of capacity problems that has plagued Tesla for a long time has not been solved yet. It's worth noting that Tesla first appeared in the market as the world's first mass-produced electric vehicle, and was sought after by customers. Its high-end line achieved a brand and revenue premium. By contrast, neither Faraday's future nor Ulara Vehicles nor other domestic electric car companies have similar brand appeal.

In short, the "burning money era" of electric vehicles has ended. Previously, the electric vehicle market followed the past Internet model - a large amount of money into the expectation of a short period of time to smash a number of high-value enterprises, and then quickly put into the market, access to a large number of users, to achieve the business model curve overtaking. But compared with the light assets operation of E-commerce and net contract vehicles, electric vehicles are typical heavy assets investment, and the law of R&D and mass production cycle can not be overstepped, so the mode of burning money also fails.

This is not a bad thing for the electric vehicle industry. The electric vehicle industry can no longer be obsessed with the past mode innovation, but should return to technological innovation, respect the industrial rules, product characteristics, supplemented by its own operating mode advantages, in order to better participate in the future competition, the formation of the electric vehicle field of "China power".


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