Author: Chen Jialan Wu Junjie source: China business network
In this year's smartphone market, the concept of "5G" has been repeatedly mentioned. In recent years, the mobile phone manufacturers have been continuously informed about the layout of 5G phones, Apple is relatively conservative for 5G phones, but also the supply chain has been confirmed that the 5G iPhone development plan, this product will be officially launched next fall. In addition, Huawei Glory, millet, vivo, Lenovo and other mobile phone manufacturers have news that the launch of 5G mobile phone in 2019.
It is reported that the 5G network will be implemented in 2019, and will be commercially available from 2020. According to Xiang Ligang, CEO of Flying Elephant Network, it is unrealistic for major mobile phone manufacturers to mass-produce 5G handsets, so the launch of next year's 5G handsets is more of a relative significance of 5G handsets.
In the interview, the reporter of China Business Daily learned that, on the one hand, the 5G network built by operators has not entered the commercial trial stage until 2019, which means that one year later, telecommunications enterprises can not provide 5G network services to the general consumers; on the other hand, they are restricted by the defects of core hardware technology such as chips. Domestic mobile phone manufacturers are unable to produce independent 5G phones.
At this stage, although commercial communication 5G base station has not yet become popular, mobile phone brand manufacturers have been rubbing their hands, actively developing new products in order to seize the market opportunity.
Apple, the veteran mobile phone maker, was once the winner of the 4G era, and rarely mentioned 5G. When CEO Cook visited China, he admitted that Apple would not launch the 5G handset too early, because the 5G technology is still worth considering in terms of battery loss, system characterization and customer experience. Recently, the supply chain released news that Apple has decided to develop the 5G iPhone, the product will be officially launched next fall.
In late September, Lenovo unveiled the world's first 5G Ready smartphone at the conference on innovation and technology. In August, Lenovo chairman and CEO Yang Yuanqing said Lenovo had released the world's first 5G module mobile phone, Moto Z3. It is reported that the mobile phone needs a 5G module to achieve 5G Internet access. Lenovo officially called the module Lenovo. Lenovo will be the first 5G experience vendor for mobile users when the module is first released in early 2019. In addition, glory, millet, OPPO, vivo, ZTE and other mobile phone brands have news that the launch of 5G mobile phone in 2019.
Many people believe that compared with 4G, 5G gives users the first high speed, personal network speed can be as high as 20Gbps, will also mean that downloading a high-definition film may be in seconds. In terms of mobile terminals, Xiang Ligang believes that the advantages of 5G handsets over 4G handsets should be reflected in high speed, low power consumption, low delay, interconnection of everything, security mechanisms and other aspects, and can create new business applications.
But including Lenovo, OPPO and other manufacturers in an interview with our reporter that the 5G era's largest terminal is not only mobile phones. Shen Yiren, assistant president of OPPO, believes that the 5G imagination is not limited to mobile phones, but that there may be some more products than mobile phones in the 5G era.
Lenovo said that 5G will affect the change of many intelligent hardware, such as the 5G communication as the basic ability of the intelligent speaker, the use of 5G low-delay characteristics of VR / AR terminal products, carrying 5G technology PC / tablet products.
Whether 5G will bring more breakthroughs to the smartphone market, many industry insiders believe that in the 5G network environment, such as mobile VR, AR and other products will benefit more than mobile phones.
Despite claims that 5G handsets will be launched next year, manufacturers have not given detailed information on the timing and output. OPPO and ZTE said they should consider the launch time of their 5G mobile phone according to the overall situation of the operators and the overall network layout.
Our reporter learned from the three major operators, China Mobile in 2018 has 17 cities in China to carry out 5G test, a total of about 1000 test base stations. The 5G network is expected to be commercially available in 2019 and commercially available in 2020. In addition, China Telecom and China Unicom also said that from 2017 to 2018, 5G network is still in the experimental stage, 2019 in a typical scenario for commercial trial, 2020 began commercial scale.
An insider of China Mobile told our reporter that the so-called commercial trial, that is, operators to select corporate customers, employees to open up the new network, let them experience, at the same time, operators in the background observation, leak detection to fill vacancies, commercial is to give the general public users a full number of use.
"Only use the corresponding terminal to experience the trial commercial 5G network." The person said, "Only through the preliminary test, can we set a standard for the real 5G mobile phone, the so-called 5G mobile phone is still very difficult to call the real meaning of the 5G mobile phone."
This also means that by 2019, the 5G network business is not yet mature. Therefore, many mobile phone manufacturers claim that 5G mobile phones will also be suspected of speculation in advance.
"In the pre-commercial phase of 5G network, it is impossible for mobile phone manufacturers to produce, sell and make money on a large scale. Whether mobile phone products can participate in the operation of operators is also a very complicated matter. Whether they can eventually access the network remains to be seen." Xiang Ligang told our reporter, 5G network pre-commercial stage, 5G mobile phone performance is not stable, easy to problems, poor experience, poor stability than the existing 4G mobile phone. 5G mobile phone is more to the operator to work, will use the situation, found problems to tell operators, only the majority of the problem solved, can be called formal commercial, formal commercial stage for consumers is relatively stable quality.
In fact, in addition to the status of operators'network construction, corresponding to this, 5G network access equipment, also poses new challenges: first of all, mass information exchange and computing, the processing capacity of the phone requires higher; secondly, higher speed brings higher power consumption; thirdly, information received multiple, mobile phone unit The increase in the area of devices and antennas poses a greater challenge to the layout design and industrial design of mobile phones.
Zhao Ming, president of Glory, has said publicly that the high power consumption of 5G mobile phones, the most advanced chip processing technology, and the overall area of the heat dissipation capacity of the challenge, which is the future 5G terminal brings limitations.
Cui Xian, director of vivo technology, believes that 5G terminals will also pose new challenges in RF front-end, 5G MIMO (large-scale antenna) system design, signal integrity / power integrity, current power consumption, thermal design, PCB and other aspects.
Jibang Consulting Tuobang Industry Research Institute predicts that 2021-2022 will be the time when 5G will gradually mature.
The industry generally believes that 5G will bring new development opportunities to the industry. But Fu Liang, a telecom analyst, believes that while manufacturers are now claiming to launch 5G handsets in 2019, it will not be until 2020 that the handset market will experience significant growth.
Market structure or change
In addition to the limitations of network construction, in terms of hardware, the chip design and production strength of domestic mobile phone manufacturers also affect the 5G mobile phone research and development, production capacity.
At present, only Huawei is able to develop 5G mobile chips by itself. In the aspect of Jibang Consulting and Tuoying Industry Research Institute, Huawei has the advantage of being a telecom equipment manufacturer, so it is comparable to other mobile phones in interoperability testing (the connection between telecom equipment and mobile phones). Manufacturers have more competitive advantages, but the cost and resources involved in research and development are also huge.
"For smartphone manufacturers that have not developed 5G mobile chips, they will lose their convenience, but the burden of R&D resources is relatively small and the risk is relatively low." Yao Jiayang, an analyst at Tubo consulting and extension Industry Research Institute, said.
A domestic mobile phone manufacturer's research and development personnel surnamed Lin 5G told our reporter that Huawei, ZTE and other manufacturers, as the main equipment suppliers in the telecommunications market, have certain advantages in the base station, the main equipment, in the 5G input time will be relatively early, as well as in the formulation of some specifications have a certain influence on a. Some advanced information and first-hand information are more accurate. But the difference between ZTE and Huawei is that Huawei owns Kirin chips, but ZTE does not have its own chip brand. For this reason, ZTE still needs to rely on the progress of research and development of Qualcomm chips. On the one hand, the gap between ZTE and OPPO, vivo, millet and other brands is not big.
"Samsung, Intel, Qualcomm, MediaTech, Huawei are all chip brands, Qualcomm should be the first wave of commercial chip brands, basically with Qualcomm brand cooperation with the mobile phone manufacturers should not be too different, the rest is some other details of the difference, and with the maturity of technology, poor The distance will also shrink. " The surnamed Lin 5G developer told the newspaper reporter.
Xiang Ligang believes that 5G will have an impact on the mobile phone market pattern to 2022 - 2025, the early stage is still Huawei, OPPO, vivo, millet domestic pattern of the four strong, in a short time can not shake.
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