Ten years Carnival feast "double 11" buy and sell behind what is changing?


Ten years Carnival feast

Original title: Ten Carnival feast? "Double 11" buy and buy behind what is changing?

 

Wang Yajie enters the song flute in Tian.

At 3:30 a.m. on November 7, 2018, across a logistics park in Nancheng, Beijing, nearly 100 trucks, medium-sized trucks and tricycles were concealed in the subregion. The road stretching for 1 kilometer was dark and cold. There were only three scattered lights in the whole park. Laotian (alias) was standing in one corner of the lights. "I have been through five years' double 11" war. No, it's dark now. In November 11th, it will be brightly lit. "

As a project manager of a logistics supplier, Laotian believes that the "Shuang11" in 2018 has created a "different feeling".

The most brilliant year was in 2017, when the team in charge of Laotian won 900 orders for transport vehicles, ranking first in the industry.

However, in 2018, with Shuang11 as an example, Laotian revealed that "this year's volume is certainly not as large as before". In his view, Shuang11 has become routine and long-term. Considering both cost and profit, this year will not be as impulsive as in previous years.

Mentality changed, and Luo Jian. Luo Jian, who has been involved in the e-commerce industry since 2012, currently runs five e-commerce stores. When referring to Shuang11, he said, "Shuang11 in 2018 means to me to have fun. In fact, during the 'double 11' period in 2016, I was still confident and ready to work hard.

Luo Jian is looking for a balance. Zhan Xinping, an e-commerce food merchant, is also weighing investment and final return. After all, advertising costs have risen by 50% compared with last year.

However, in the eyes of Alibaba stakeholders, this year's "double 11" has no suspense. Statistics show that in 2018, the delivery volume of "Shuang11" may exceed 2 billion pieces, or reach the highest level in nearly 10 years.

Chen Jing, Alibaba's new retail Engineering department, believes that in order to adapt to the change of modern life style, the consumption scenario and brand model of Tianmao Shuang11 have been changing in the past ten years.

Zhang Weijun, general manager of Shanghai Yipi Group, said: "In the situation of consumer upgrading, the whole network of explosions is being eliminated, replaced by crowd explosions. In 2017, the total turnover of Shuang11 has exceeded 160 billion yuan, and the products will be upgraded further.

Running ten years of "double 11" is changing.

New logistics strategy

A year ago in October 20, 2017, Laotian was eager to find a driver to prepare his car. Since the end of October, Laotian's team has prepared enough transportation deposit to make a big effort. He set up a record of 100 bottles of wine. Last November 11th, twelve point one times, orders suddenly broke out. Laotian compares the scene in the logistics park, as if the scene of busy sorters on both sides of the conveyor belt appeared again. They mechanically and intensively put the package codes they found on the tray, facing out one-sided.

In the morning of November 4, 2018, there will be more than two hours before dawn. A year later, Lao Tian silently stood before the conveyor belt, and the phone did not ring frequently as usual last year. After finishing the work in his hand, he can go home and go to bed.

This year, "double 11", Laotian's company only took more than 100 cars. Of course, this is not unrelated to the challenges faced by the development of the company itself, for example, as a private enterprise, the difficulties encountered in lending.

Laotian said: "this year and even later, we will try new ways." He gave an example: "For example, when 2 million GMV was rushed out one day last year, the cost of freight would be 2 million yuan. If the customer was paid back, it would take 30 to 50 days to recover it. Ten days running, we have to pay 450 million yuan in advance. The pressure of capital cost is too high, and we are not profitable, just to hedge performance. I used to think these thoughts. Now my mindset has changed.

Laotian's company must consider cost and profit multiple considerations this year. He is honest and must assume the pressure of the leading electricity supplier. He said: "During the period of Shuang11, e-commerce requires logistics carriers to bear the prescribed traffic volume and meet the target. Even if they lose money, they should complete the delivery during the period of Shuang11. If they fail to meet the demand, they may be kicked out and lose the chance of long-term cooperation with leading e-commerce companies."

Shunfeng, a logistics company with a larger scale than Laotian's, is more interested in Shuang11 in 2018. On November 8, Shunfeng officials told the Economic Observer that during this year's "Shuang11" period, Shunfeng expects to add 116 new high-speed rail lines, adding nearly 250 tons of capacity. Boeing 747, which has been put into operation recently, will join the Shuang11 reserve force. Shunfeng's air transport capacity is expected to increase by 112.7 tons.

According to the forecast of the State Post Office, during the period of Shuang11 in 2018, the business volume of postal (fast) items handled by the whole industry from 11 to 16 will increase by 370 million pieces compared with last year, totaling more than 1.87 billion pieces, with the maximum daily processing volume reaching 3.1 times the daily processing volume since the second quarter.

In contrast, the rookie network has expanded the logistics backbone network to create a new high of "double 11". Sun Jian, General Manager of Newbie Cloud Express Warehouse Business Department, gave the data of preparing for this year's "Shuang11" intelligent logistics backbone network of newbie network, which includes 3 million logistics practitioners and more than 200,000 express vehicles.

Sun Jian said: "In the face of such a large volume of freight orders, any logistics company can not complete, the industry needs to form an intelligent logistics backbone network." According to the internal data statistics of the enterprise, this year Shuang11, the rookie intelligent logistics backbone network links more than 30 million square meters to the global warehouse and distribution center, 3 million logistics practitioners, more than 200,000 express vehicles, and 1.2 million Express customers participate in it.

Small business transformation

The advertising cost during the "double 11" period is much higher than usual.

Zhan Xinping, who has been involved in the "double 11" Carnival for many years, said: "advertising costs increase year by year." From the whole year's situation, it cost less than 200 thousand yuan in 2016, and the cost of advertising input reached 400 thousand yuan in 2017. In 2018, when the "double 11" has not yet arrived, the advertising cost has exceeded 300 thousand yuan this year.

Zhang Weijun believes that in the consumer upgrade situation, the whole network of explosions is being eliminated, replaced by crowd explosions, not by the search engine definition of the whole popularity, but by the needs of different user groups to promote the popularity of the crowd.

The rise in advertising costs has changed the attitude of Roh to "double 11". He said: "From 2016, our store's attitude towards Shuang11 is no longer as strong as it used to be."

Luo Jian did not show obvious interest in the upcoming "double 11". The turning point took place in 2016, when the gap was very large. In the early days of Shuang11, a lot of advertising costs were spent. However, on the day of Shuang11 in 2016, as well as the subsequent continuous sales, all failed to pull back the cost of funds invested in the front.

Since then, Luo Jian has felt that the cost of the entire e-commerce platform is rising, profits are declining, and the net profit of stores in 2016 is half of that in 2015. He began to downgrade the indicators of store operations, including turnover, inventory and staffing.

However, in this year's "Shuang11" stock, Zhan Xinping and Luo Jian are not soft-handed, or prepared for the same amount of goods as last year's "Shuang11" period.

Zhan Xinping and Luo Jian's shops belong to the food industry equally. In contrast, the development prospects of snack leading enterprises are still good.

Chen Jing keenly captured the graded changes in consumption trends. She analyzed the trend of category sales and thought that the rise of domestic goods was still very fast.

Looking back on the changes of online shopping in the past decade, Chen Jing further indicated that consumers'online shopping category has gradually developed from initial clothing and bedding to 3C household appliances, and then cosmetics brand has entered an explosive period. Now, people used to buy necessities from offline supermarkets, and sales on Tianmao have increased rapidly. For example, she said: "there are a lot of rice loaded on Tmall, and sales growth is very fast."

Trend

When some domestic e-commerce merchants are in a "contradiction", some foreign retailers have already withdrawn from China through channels. Metro, which publicized the "Shuang11" preferential activities in the past two years, was quiet on the eve of this year's "Shuang11".

Bao Yuezhong, an expert in the new retail industry of fast consumer goods, told reporters that foreign retailers, such as Metro, are indeed facing downward pressure on their performance in China as a whole. In the past decade, with the rapid development of China's economy, retail formats have been increasing, and the rapid development of e-commerce has been promoting the innovation of retail forms. Some traditional retail enterprises are bound to face challenges.

Will Metro quit China? As of press release, Metro official did not give a definite answer.

Chen Jing believes that retailers need to know about China when they do business in the local market. Direct entry of foreign retailers and Nadi stores is a very aggressive way. This step represents a possible investment of hundreds of millions of yuan. They can first learn about the characteristics of Chinese consumers'demand through electronic stores, and then gradually consider opening official direct stores.

Ten years, "double 11" has become more than just foreign brands.

In Chen Jing's eyes, the development trend of fast fading brands is getting better and better, and is expected to continue to expand. In particular, more and more new brands will emerge from fast-food products. In 2018, for example, there will be many brands that have never appeared before. Some online Red foods are also turning from Taobao to Tianmao.

From the perspective of category trend, Chen Jing predicts that, taking cosmetics brand as an example, it will definitely be a big brand in the future, with Chinese goods and Estee Lauder and Shiseido equally divided. With the help of e-commerce platform, we can see that the rise of domestic goods is very fast. It is worth noting that the development of tea and wine, which used to be very popular online, will be further enhanced in the future.

However, Chen Jing cautioned that clothing brands, for example, have a relatively high online penetration rate of up to 50%, and there must be bottlenecks to break through further. In this regard, Ali proposed in the new retail service optimization, providing fast delivery of clothing services to meet the needs of consumers convenient and fast access.

Cross border forces

Cross border electricity providers are becoming an important new fulcrum of "double 11" and have shown tremendous strength.

Hangzhou Economic and Technological Development Zone Customs (hereinafter referred to as "Development Zone Customs") is located in Xiasha Garden, Hangzhou Cross-Border Electronic Commerce Comprehensive Test Zone. Since Hangzhou was approved to establish the China Hangzhou Cross-Border Electronic Commerce Comprehensive Test Zone in 2015, such e-commerce platforms as Tianmao, rookie, Xinyi and other warehousing operators have entered in succession. By 2018, more than 300,000 square meters of bonded warehouses for cross-border e-commerce have been built. On average, 148,000 items of cross-border goods are transported from Xiasha Cross-border Park to consumers nationwide. Most of the goods come from e-commerce platforms such as Tianmao.

In order to cope with the increasing volume of orders, the Customs of the Development Zone has set up a special department called Cross-border Electronic Commerce Supervision Section, and adopted a series of new measures to improve efficiency. "Cross-border e-commerce is not the same as traditional exports. It's a brand new way of trade, in which


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