"Double eleven" data refresh the record, is not this consumption upgrade?


Draw inferences from others

The decline in the proportion of clothing, shoes and bags in the total transaction reflects that with the intergenerational changes and the development of urbanization in China, Chinese consumption concept has changed and upgraded.

In November 11th, the electronic business platform gave a record of consumption list.

Behind the double eleven revelry is China's consumption upgrading.

Beneath the seemingly simple surface data, the deep current of still water is the tremendous historical change of Chinese society in the past 40 years of reform and opening up, as well as the accompanying consumption escalation.

First of all, this change stems from the continuous growth of China's economy and the continuous increase of Chinese income. In 2009, China's e-commerce transaction volume was close to 4 trillion yuan, which reached 29 trillion yuan by 2017, an increase of more than six times. The larger background is that in 2009, China's GDP was 35 trillion yuan, while in 2017, China's GDP exceeded 80 trillion yuan for the first time.

In this double eleventh middle school, the number of middle and high consumption depth consumers who consumed more than 1000 yuan increased significantly faster than those who consumed less than 1000 yuan. The growth rate of heavy consumers who consume more than 5,000 yuan has continued to increase for two consecutive years, which is 3.4 times that of 500-1000 yuan.

This not only means that the consumption capacity of the mainstream Internet consumers after 1980 and 1990 increases with the economic growth, but also means that with the development of smartphones, the Internet consumption of the middle-aged and elderly over 50 years old is released, and older people naturally have stronger consumption capacity.

It is a cliche that total turnover reflects changes in China's economy and the escalation of consumption. More interestingly, in fact, the structural change of the transaction data reflects the deeper structural change behind China's consumption upgrading.

Ten years of double 11 data show that clothing and shoe bags have always been the most expensive category of online consumption. But in Shuang11 of the five years from 2013 to 2017, the proportion of this category shows a downward trend. More transaction amounts are allocated to 3C digital, home decoration, beauty care and other sub-categories.

This change comes first from the intergenerational change of the Internet population. China's Internet population began after 1980s. Nowadays, they are all middle-aged. Compared with the post-90s consumers'more obvious personal preferences, the post-80s consumer structure and consumer goods will naturally change.

From this double eleven consumption data, it reflects more family meanings. In maternal and infant consumption, household decoration, household appliances and 3C digital categories, the post-80s group has higher consumption preferences than other age groups. Mother and baby, home decoration, 3C digital, the price is more expensive, naturally will lead to the upgrading of the entire consumption.

The process of urbanization drives the upgrading of China's consumption structure

More profound than the intergenerational change is that the process of urbanization in China has shown its structural impact on Chinese consumption.

At this time point in 2013, for most people in China, it is no longer a problem to eat and wear warm clothes. Clothing shoes bag is more a manifestation of their consumption needs. So, is the decline in the proportion of clothing, shoes and bags in the total turnover a reflection of the decline in Chinese demand?

Not really. The real reason is that with the change of generations and the development of urbanization in China, the consumption concept of Chinese people has changed and upgraded.

A person's hobbies for football, tourism and electronic products are actually developed in adolescence. This not only requires money, but also needs support from external environment, quality education and other resources. Urbanization, because of its scale effect, provides many factors at the same time.

When the generation growing up in urbanization becomes the main force of consumption, their pursuit of psychological satisfaction and spiritual enjoyment has gone beyond the stage of using clothing, shoes and bags to show themselves, more to tourism, sports, electronic products, handmade products and other products. Therefore, we see that leisure service consumption is a hot topic in recent years.

The selling of tourist products is a typical example of the rise of consumption power. For example, the head of an internet tourism platform said that young Group-led outbound tours, such as the World Cup in Russia, La Liga, the Premier League, NBA and other tournaments, have increased significantly. A very simple truth is that the love of La Liga, the Premier League and the NBA generally comes from adolescence, but also needs the support of a holistic atmosphere.

It is not hard to imagine that with the growth of 00, their consumption will be more diversified. The cultivation of adolescents will lead them to have a wider interest in consumption as adults, such as collecting Lego, musical instruments, works of art and so on.

From this perspective, the current Chinese phenomena need to be searched 30 years ago. The current "Double Eleventh" data not only reflects the overall growth of China's economy, but also reflects the urbanization process of China and the structural changes of the population.

Liu Yuan Ju (Research Fellow, Shanghai Institute of Finance and law)


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